Gross NPAs of banks to rise 8-9 per cent this fiscal: Crisil

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Gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of banks will rise to 8-9 per cent this fiscal, well below the peak of 11.2 per cent seen at the end of fiscal 2018, with the Covid-19 relief measures such as the restructuring dispensation, and the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) helping limit the rise, according to CRISIL Ratings.

GNPAs as at March-end 2021 had declined to 7.5 per cent against 8.2 per cent as at March-end 2020.

With about 2 per cent of bank credit expected under restructuring by the end of this fiscal, stressed assets ― comprising gross NPAs and loan book under restructuring ― should touch 10-11 per cent (against March-end 2021 estimate of about 9 per cent), the credit rating agency said.

Krishnan Sitaraman, Senior Director and Deputy Chief Ratings Officer, CRISIL Ratings, said: “The retail and MSME segments, which together form about 40 per cent of bank credit, are expected to see higher accretion of NPAs and stressed assets this time around.

“Stressed assets in these segments are seen rising to 4-5 per cent and 17-18 per cent, respectively, by this fiscal-end. The numbers would have trended even higher but for write-offs, primarily in the unsecured segment.”

Retail segment singed by pandemic

The agency underscored that the retail segment, which had a relatively stable run over the past decade, has been singed by the pandemic, with salaried and self-employed borrowers alike facing significant income challenges and higher medical expenses, especially in the second wave.

Thus, in a first-of-its-kind move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced loan restructuring for retail borrowers to help them tide over the situation. This followed a six-month moratorium permitted by lenders last fiscal.

Despite these measures, CRISIL Ratings believes stressed assets in the retail segment will rise to 4-5 per cent by the end of this fiscal from about 3 per cent last fiscal.

The agency assessed that while home loans, the largest segment, will be the least impacted, unsecured loans are expected to bear the brunt of the pandemic.

MSME segment: Asset quality to deteriorate

CRISIL Ratings cautioned that the MSME segment, despite benefiting from ECLGS and the recent limit enhancement and tenure extension, is likely to see asset quality deteriorate and will require restructuring to manage cash-flow challenges.

In fact, restructuring is expected to be the highest for this segment, at 4-5 per cent of the loan book, leading to a jump in stressed assets to 17-18 per cent by this fiscal end from about 14 per cent last fiscal, per the agency’s estimates.

Corporate segment: Resilient

CRISIL Ratings observed that the corporate segment, though, is expected to be far more resilient.

“A large part of the stress in the corporate portfolio had already been recognised during the asset quality review initiated five years ago.

“That, coupled with the secular deleveraging trend, has strengthened the balance sheets of corporates, and enabled them to tide over the pandemic relatively unscathed compared with retail and MSME borrowers,” the agency said.

This is evident from restructuring of only about 1 per cent in the segment. Consequently, corporate stressed assets are expected to remain range-bound at 9-10 per cent this fiscal.

Rural segment: Strong recovery

CRISIL Ratings noted that the rural segment, which was hit harder during the second wave of the pandemic, has also seen a strong recovery.

Therefore, stressed assets in the agriculture segment are expected to remain relatively stable at about 10-11 per cent.

Restructured portfolio: Needs close monitoring

Subhasri Narayanan, Director, CRISIL Ratings, observed that while the performance of the restructured portfolio will definitely need close monitoring, the slippages from the restructured book are expected to be lower this time.

Restructuring under various schemes in the past focussed on larger exposures and primarily involved extension of maturity without any material haircuts, resulting in high subsequent slippages, she said, and added that this time, the entry barriers for restructuring are more stringent.

Also, recent trends indicate that a reasonable proportion of borrowers, primarily on the retail side, have started making additional payments as their cash flows improve, despite having availed of restructuring, Narayanan said. MSMEs, however, may take longer to stabilise and we remain watchful.

CRISIL Ratings’ estimates are predicated on a base-case scenario of 9.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal and continued improvement in corporate credit quality.

“A virulent third wave and significant deceleration in demand growth could pose significant downside risks to these estimates,” the agency said.

On the other hand, operationalisation of the National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd by the end of this fiscal and the expected first-round sale of Rs 90,000 crore NPAs could lead to lower reported gross NPAs.

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Banks hire for $93 billion India, Southeast Asia tech deal hunt, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Investment banks are boosting their technology hiring in Southeast Asia and India as the region’s fast-growing consumer internet markets catch up with their peers, pushing deals to new heights.

Global lenders Barclays Plc and Citigroup Inc. have created new senior roles, while regional and boutique players are staffing up to capture a surge of activity in mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings.

“Every single investment bank is looking to hire technology, media and telecommunications bankers,” said Anand Menon, managing director of Executive Principles, a head-hunting firm in India. “TMT is an animal producing multiple babies. We need new-age bankers who think like entrepreneurs to cover them with the same speed as these startups.”

Technology-focused investment bankers in Asia previously focused on larger and more developed markets such as Japan and South Korea, and more recently, China. Galvanized by the coronavirus pandemic’s boost to e-commerce and remote working, financiers are jockeying to work with startups as they open up markets with a combined population of about 2 billion.

In Southeast Asia, Citigroup created a new managing director role to oversee TMT, Bloomberg News has reported. BDA Partners Inc., BNP Paribas SA, and Malayan Banking Bhd. are among the other banks that have recently made or are making sector hires in the region, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters.

Barclays’s India investment bank chief, Pramod Kumar, said the firm is beefing up its team in Mumbai by adding a senior posting. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is hiring a TMT banker at the executive director level, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Representatives for BNP Paribas and JPMorgan declined to comment. A representative for BDA Partners said the firm is active in India and Southeast Asia technology investment banking and will continue to hire in the space. Rajiv Vijendran, regional head of investment banking at Maybank Kim Eng Group in Singapore, said the bank is constantly looking for new areas to grow the business, including TMT.

Ashish Kehair, chief executive officer at India’s Edelweiss Wealth Management, said its investment banking unit is hiring three to five bankers with technology expertise. “Digital and technology has the force multiplier effect now,” he said.

The bankers will have their hands full. Technology, telecommunications and media deals announced in South and Southeast Asia are at a record $93 billion this year, nearly double the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Consolidation of regional leaders is already taking place. Ride-hailing and payments giant Gojek agreed to combine with e-commerce pioneer PT Tokopedia in May to create the largest internet company in Indonesia. Next stop is the capital markets, where the combined firm is considering mopping up as much as $2 billion from listings at home and in the U.S. at a valuation of about $30 billion, Bloomberg News reported in July.

Tech startups in Southeast Asia and India are maturing in terms of scale and size, with many becoming unicorns and some ready to go public either through direct listings or mergers with blank-check firms, said Jwalant Nanavati, head of TMT for Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc. In April, the Japanese bank hired an executive director in Singapore focusing on TMT, Bloomberg News has reported.

“The pandemic provided strong tail winds in terms of faster adoption by consumers of online business models,” said Jeff Acton, a Tokyo-based partner at boutique investment bank BDA Partners. “Southeast Asia’s tech ecosystem is relatively younger, but many first-generation tech companies suddenly saw an increase in demand.”

Consumer-oriented firms have led the first wave of listings. Indonesian online marketplace PT Bukalapak.com raised $1.5 billion in August, while food ordering platform Zomato Ltd. has mobilized $1.3 billion from its Indian IPO.

“The consumer internet market in these regions is reaching critical mass and continues to show very robust growth, which has super charged the leading companies across the region,” said James Perry, managing director and co-head of Asia Pacific technology investment banking at Citigroup. “Disruption is still a major theme and investors are keen to invest in these opportunities.”

Bankers said China’s sweeping crackdown on its technology giants has benefited other countries in the region, as potential acquirers such as special purpose acquisition companies have lately shunned its startups.

Investors are waiting for greater clarity around the regulatory issues in China, said Maybank’s Vijendran. “The China crackdown has focused the attention of global players and U.S. SPACs on ASEAN startups,” he said.

“Given the high risk profile due to recent developments, we expect investors will allocate an increasing proportion into Southeast Asia,” BDA’s Acton said, adding China will still remain a crucial destination for capital.

Though Asia’s biggest economy has seen some dislocation this year because of Beijing’s policy actions, deal activity is set to return over time as that market continues to create new “exciting” companies, said Citigroup’s Perry.

“Valuation uptick in digitech is playing across all companies,” Barclays’s Kumar said. “This is a secular trend driven by the convergence of technology and traditional sectors, and this is bound to continue.”



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Banks to be closed on Eid-Milad, Gajalaxmi Puja in Odisha, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Bhubaneswar (Odisha) [India], October 19 (ANI): Odisha government on Monday announced that Banks and other banking institutions in the states would remain closed on Tuesday and Wednesday.

“Banks and other Banking institutions in Odisha will remain closed on October 19 (Tuesday) and October 20, 2021 (Wednesday) on the occasion of ‘Eid-Milad‘ and ‘Gajalaxmi Puja‘ respectively,” said Revenue & Disaster Management Department, Odisha government in a notification.

Eid-Milad or Eid Milad-un-Nabi is an annual celebration to commemorate the birth anniversary of Prophet Muhammad and is observed in the month of Rabi-ul-Awwal, the third month of the Islamic lunar calendar, which commences with the sighting of the moon. The occasion also marks the death anniversary of the Prophet. (ANI)

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12 held by Delhi police for attempts of unauthorised withdrawal from high-value NRI account, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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New Delhi [India], October 19 (ANI): Delhi Police Cyber Cell on Tuesday arrested 12 people, including three HDFC bank employees, for allegedly attempting to make an unauthorised withdrawal from a very high-value NRI account.

KPS Malhotra, Deputy Superintendent of Police (DCP) (Cyber Cell), informed that as many as 66 attempts of unauthorised online transactions were made by the group on the high-value account.

“The accused had fraudulently obtained cheque book which has been recovered. Mobile phone number identical to that of account holder’s US-based phone number was also procured by the fraudsters,” the DSP stated.

“On the basis of technical evidence, footprints, and human intelligence, multiple geolocations were identified. In all, raids were conducted at 20 locations across Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh,” he further informed.

Out of the 12 accused held by the police, three are HDFC bank employees, who were involved in issuing the cheque book, updating the mobile phone number and removing the debt freeze of the account.

The matter came to light after HDFC bank filed a complaint with the Cyber Cell alleging several unauthorised attempts of withdrawal noticed in one NRI account.

“There are many unauthorised internet banking attempts noticed in one NRI bank account. Further, there have been attempts to withdraw cash from the same account, using the fraudulently obtained cheque book. Attempts were also made to get update mobile phone number in the KYC of the same bank account by replacing the already registered US mobile phone number with similar/identical Indian mobile phone number,” HDFC bank’s complaint alleged.

The police informed that in earlier instances, there were attempts of withdrawal of money from this account, and two cases were registered for the same at Uttar Pradesh’s Ghaziabad, and Punjab’s Mohali.

Further raids are in progress and investigation in the case is being carried out. (ANI)



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Banks shut on Id-E-Milad in these states, closed for up to 5 days this week

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Even as banks will remain shut on specific days, customers can avail net banking and other online services

Bank holidays: Banks in India will remain closed for up to five days this week, and seven days in the remaining month of October 2021. This will also include second and fourth Saturdays, and Sundays. It may be noted that apart from weekly holidays, all the public and private sector banks across India will not be closed for all seven days for all states as these are state-specific holidays for different occasions. Even as banks will remain shut on specific days, customers can avail net banking and other online services, as mobile and internet banking will also remain operational.

Festive Holidays in October 2021

19 October 2021 – Id-E-Milad/Eid-e-Miladunnabi/Milad-i-Sherif (Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday)/Barawafat
20 October 2021 – Maharishi Valmiki’s Birthday/Lakshmi Puja/Id-E-Milad
22 October 2021 – Friday following Eid-i-Milad-ul-Nabi
26 October 2021 – Accession Day

On 19 October, banks in Ahmedabad, Belapur, Bhopal, Chennai, Dehradun, Hyderabad, Imphal, Jammu, Kanpur, Kochi, Lucknow, Mumbai, Nagpur, New Delhi, Raipur, Ranchi, Srinagar, Thiruvananthapuram will remain shut for Id-E-Milad/Eid-e-Miladunnabi/Milad-i-Sherif. Banks in Agartala, Bengaluru, Chandigarh, Kolkata, Shimla, will be closed on 20 October for Maharishi Valmiki’s Birthday. On 22 and 26 October, banks in Jammu and Srinagar will remain closed for Eid-i-Milad-ul-Nabi, and Accession Day, respectively.

Also read: Early Q2 results boost hopes of firm recovery; retailers, banks signal nascent pick-up in consumption

Weekend Bank Holidays in October 2021

17 October 2021 – Sunday
23 October 2021 – 4th Saturday
24 October 2021 – Sunday
31 October 2021 – Sunday

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has categorised holidays under three categories — Holiday under Negotiable Instruments Act; Holiday under Negotiable Instruments Act and Real-Time Gross Settlement Holiday; and Banks’ Closing of Accounts. The list of holidays given below has been notified by RBI.

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Bitcoin investing could get boost from exchange-traded fund

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ProShares said Monday it plans to launch the country’s first exchange-traded fund linked to Bitcoin. The ETF with the ticker symbol “BITO” is expected to begin trading Tuesday, barring any opposition from regulators.

In a statement, ProShares CEO Michael Sapir compared the launch of a crypto-linked ETF to the 1993 launch of the first stocks ETF and the 2002 roll-out of the initial bond ETF. The US market for ETFs has grown to more than $5.4 trillion and they’re owned by roughly 9 per cent of all the nation’s households, according to the Investment Company Institute.

Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, have exploded into a nearly $2.5 trillion industry after the creation of thousands of digital currencies. Bitcoin is the biggest of them all, with a total value of nearly $1.2 trillion. But like much in the crypto world, the Bitcoin-linked ETF is complicated.

The fund won’t invest directly in Bitcoin itself. Instead, it will focus on futures related to Bitcoin, a market that’s overseen by US regulators. Investors need to be particularly aware of what they’re buying and how it’s likely to perform.

Why is this a big deal?

A Bitcoin-related ETF would give investors a new way to get involved in the fast-growing field of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s price has more than doubled this year, and a growing number of investors see it as a way to offer their portfolios some protection.

Also see: Bitcoin hovers near 6-month high on ETF hopes, inflation worries

The hope is that Bitcoin’s price will move in a way that’s not as tied to expectations for the economy as stocks and other investments are. If it does, it could help support portfolios when everything else is falling or when inflation is high. But it doesn’t have a perfect track record. When the US stock market fell nearly 34 per cent at the start of the pandemic in 2020, Bitcoin lost roughly as much.

Some investors may not want to open a new trading account for cryptocurrencies. Instead, they can buy the ETF through old-school brokerage accounts they may already be using for their stocks or their IRA.

What is an ETF?

An exchange-traded fund allows investors to easily buy a whole basket of investments. Some of the most popular ETFs track things like the S&P 500 index of big US stocks, the price of gold or high-yield bond indexes.

Unlike with a traditional mutual fund, which prices just once a day, investors can buy or sell an ETF throughout the trading day. That’s particularly important for cryptocurrencies, whose prices can swing sharply from minute to minute, let alone day to day.

So this new ETF will track the price of bitcoin?

No, and this is one of the most important distinctions. The fund will invest in Bitcoin futures, which are essentially bets on where Bitcoin’s price will go in each of the months ahead.

The Bitcoin futures market is overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which may offer investors more protection. But it also doesn’t perfectly track the price of Bitcoin.

“This is not a replacement for owning bitcoin directly,” said Todd Rosenbluth, Head of ETF and Mutual Fund Research at CFRA.

Who is this best suited for?

Because it will be invested in futures instead of actual Bitcoins, the ETF is less than ideal for a Bitcoin believer who wants to invest in it for the long term, Rosenbluth said.

Instead of a buy-and-hold investor, he said it’s more likely to be popular with shorter-term traders who want to make money off its volatility, at least initially. There’s certainly plenty of opportunity for that.

In the span of roughly three months earlier this year, Bitcoin more than halved from nearly $64,900 to less than $30,000. Since that low point in July, it’s surged back to nearly $61,800.

How much will it cost?

BITO will have an expense ratio of 0.95 per cent. That means $95 of every $10,000 invested in the fund will go toward paying its annual operating expenses.

Such fees could be a hard sell for Bitcoin fans, many of whom see cryptocurrencies as a way to erase middlemen from industries.

Is this the first and last such ETF?

No, several other fund companies have their own applications for ETFs linked to Bitcoin futures. Some may try to separate themselves by charging lower fees.

Also see: Millennials pull crypto out of the shadows

Beyond just extending the reach of Bitcoin, the ETFs will help create a bigger ecosystem in the financial world around it, said Ben Johnson, Director of Global ETF Research at Morningstar.

With a Bitcoin-linked ETF, sceptical investors will have something that they can sell short. In such a trade, they can bet on the ETF’s price to fall by borrowing a share and selling it, hoping to buy it back later at a lower price. The ETFs could also allow for trading of options around them.

“The money made on all that trading activity is going to dwarf the money made just on collecting fees for those products,” Johnson said.

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Balasubramanian elected as Chairman of Association of Mutual Funds

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Balasubramanian has been elected Chairman of Association of Mutual Funds in India, at the recently concluded board meeting of AMFI.

Balasubramanian is Chief Executive Officer of Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management. He would take over from Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mutual Fund.

Balasubramanian earlier served as AMFI Chairman between 2017 and 2019 and now would continue to hold the office till the conclusion of the next AGM.

Radhika Gupta, Chief Executive Officer, Edelweiss Asset Management has been elected as the Vice-Chairperson of AMFI.

A Balasubramanian was also appointed as the ex-officio Chairman of AMFI Financial Literacy Committee, being the Chairman of AMFI.

Shah was elected to be the Chairman of AMFI Valuation Committee.

Radhika Gupta has been re-elected as Chairperson of AMFI ETF Committee.

Sanjay Sapre, President, Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) was re-elected as the Chairman of AMFI Operations and Compliance Committee.

Vishal Kapoor, Chief Executive Officer, IDFC Asset Management has been elected as the Chairman of AMFI Standing Committee of Certified Distributors (ARN Committee).

These decisions were taken by AMFI, the industry body of SEBI-registered mutual funds at its Board Meeting on Monday.

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Wall Street banks set to profit again when Fed withdraws pandemic stimulus, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW YORK -Wall Street banks have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic-era trading boom, fueled by the Federal Reserve‘s massive injection of cash into financial markets.

With the central bank nearing the time when it will start winding down its asset purchases, banks are set to profit again as increased volatility encourages clients to buy and sell more stocks and bonds, analysts, investors and executives say.

The Fed has been buying up government-backed bonds since March 2020, adding $4 trillion to its balance sheet, as part of an emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The strategy was designed to stabilize financial markets and ensure companies and other borrowers had sufficient access to capital. It succeeded but also resulted in unprecedented levels of liquidity, helping equity and bond traders enjoy their most profitable period since the 2007-09 financial crisis.

The top five Wall Street investment banks – JP Morgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup – made an additional $51 billion in trading revenues last year and in the first three quarters of 2021, compared with the comparative quarters in the year prior to COVID, according to company earnings statements.

The trading bonanza, along with a boom in global deal-making, has helped bank stocks outperform the broader market. The KBW Bank index has risen by 40% in the year-to-date compared with a 19% advance in the S&P 500.

Now, banks with large trading businesses are expected to profit a second time as the Fed starts to withdraw the stimulus, prompting investors to rejig their portfolios again.

“As investors look to position based on that volatility, that creates an opportunity for us to make markets for them. And obviously that would lend itself to improved performance,” Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason told reporters this week.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in late September that tapering was imminent. An official announcement is expected in November and the central bank has signaled it will look to halt asset purchases completely by mid-2022 – a timetable seen by some investors as aggressive.

Banks have already benefited from enhanced volatility since Powell’s comments in late September, which led to a spike in Treasury yields and a decline in equity markets. That led to a pick-up in trading volumes at the end of the third quarter and the start of the fourth quarter, executives say.

“It is possible we will see bouts of volatility associated with the tapering,” Morgan Stanley Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said in an interview Thursday, adding that she doesn’t expect a repeat of 2013’s ‘taper tantrum.’

At that time, the Fed’s decision to put the brakes on a quantitative easing program sent markets into a frenzy as investors dumped riskier assets in favor of ‘safe havens,’ leading to a spike in government bond yields and sharp falls in equity markets.

Fed officials are confident of avoiding that scenario this time around by giving markets enough advance warning of their intentions.

“The sweet spot is where you have some volatility but not enough to disrupt the broader capital markets which have been an important contributor to healthy trading results over the past year,” said JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Third-quarter results from the biggest U.S. banks this week showed strong performances in equities trading, boosted by stocks hitting record highs, but a more subdued showing in bond trading reflecting calm in those markets.

Investors are anticipating activity will ramp up again in the run-up to tapering, when it eventually begins.

“It will certainly be a positive,” said Patrick Kaser at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “Volatility is a friend to trading businesses.”

(Additional reporting by David Henry; Editing by Andrea Ricci)



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Cash going to co-exist with central bank digital currency, says former RBI governor Subbarao, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Former RBI governor D Subbarao on Monday said there is a strong motivation for the central bank to launch a digital currency and cash is going to coexist with the new-age currency. Addressing an event virtually organised by economic think tank NCAER, Subbarao further said cybersecurity is also one of the downside risks of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

“There is a strong motivation for the RBI to launch CBDC… Cash is going to coexist with CBDC,” he said.

The former RBI governor also noted that privacy is also going to be a big issue when the RBI launches the digital currency.

Recently, RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar had said the central bank is working on a phased implementation strategy for its own digital currency and was in the process of launching it in wholesale and retail segments in the near future.

He had also said the idea of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is ripe, and many central banks in the world are working towards it.

While observing that if the RBI launches CBDC, the control of the central bank on money supply will be weakened, Subbarao said there is also issue of financial instability.

Replying to a question on cryptocurrencies, Subbarao warned that cryptocurrencies could become a vehicle for taking money out from countries like India and China.

“There is a certainly case for regulating cryptocurrencies..These cryptocurrency assets can be used for money laundering,” he said.

Subbarao, however, noted that cryptocurrencies are here to stay as speculative assets.

In India, a high-level inter-ministerial committee constituted by the Ministry of Finance has examined the policy and legal frameworks, and has recommended the introduction of CBDC as a digital form of fiat money in the country.

Cryptocurrencies are digital or virtual currencies in which encryption techniques are used to regulate the generation of their units and verify the transfer of funds, operating independently of a central bank.



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