Icra lowers loan recast estimates to 2.5-4.5% of advances from 5-8%

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Accordingly, it has revised its loan restructuring estimates downward to 2.5-4.5% of advances, against 5-8% estimated earlier.

Net non-performing assets (NPAs) and credit provisions for banks will trend lower in FY22 as they have reported strong collections on their loan portfolio. Loan restructuring requests have been much lower than previously estimated as a result of a sharper-than-expected improvement in economic activities as well liquidity support through the emergency credit line guarantee scheme, rating agency Icra said on Monday. Accordingly, it has revised its loan restructuring estimates downward to 2.5-4.5% of advances, against 5-8% estimated earlier.

Anil Gupta, sector head – financial sector ratings, Icra Ratings, said with expectations of sustained collections and lower restructuring, asset quality was expected to improve further, with the net NPA ratio declining to 2.4-2.6% by March 2022. “This will lead to lower credit provisions and better profitability in FY2022,” he said.

The agency said improved asset quality and consequently lower credit provisions could drive better profitability for banks, provide an impetus to lenders and rejuvenate their lending decisions. Low interest rates, improved business volumes, better job prospects and income levels could also stimulate credit demand next year. This, coupled with better competitive positioning of banks vis-a-vis other lenders driven by a steep decline in cost of deposits, could improve bank credit growth to 6-7% in FY22 from an estimated 3.9-5.2% in FY21 and 6.1% in FY20.

Even as the SC’s final order on asset classification is awaited, Icra expects the gross NPA and net NPA ratios for banks to rise to 10.1-10.6% and 3.1-3.2% respectively, by March 2021. The corresponding figures as of September 2020 were 7.9% and 2.2% respectively. Icra expects the credit provisions to decline to 1.8-2.4% of advances during FY22 from an estimate of 2.2-3.1% in FY21 and 3.1% in FY20, which will lead to improvement in return on equity (RoE) for banks.

Public sector banks are set to break-even after six consecutive years (FY16- FY21) of losses and generate an RoE of 0-5.4% for FY22 (-2.3%/ 3.7% for FY21 and -6.5% for FY20). The RoE for private banks is also estimated to improve to 9.5-10.5% in FY22 (2-7.5% in FY21 and 6.5% for FY20).

The capital position for large private banks is strong and they can withstand the stress case scenario for asset quality after having raised Rs 54,400 crore of capital during April-December of FY21. With large capital raises and expectations of improved profitability, these banks are also well placed to exercise call options on Rs 26,000 crore worth of additional tier-I (AT-I) bonds falling due in FY22 and FY23 without a significant impact on their capital. Icra expects the fresh capital requirement for private banks to be limited to less than Rs 10,000 crore till FY22. The requirement could come from a few mid-sized and small private banks.

The AT-I bond market for public sector banks has seen a revival in FY21. In addition, a few public sector banks have also been able to raise equity capital aggregating Rs 7,500 crore from the markets after a gap of almost three years. This, coupled with the government’s budgeted equity capital infusion of Rs 20,000 crore, should suffice for FY21, Icra said. Gupta further said public sector banks would need to raise additional capital of up to Rs 43,000 crore next year as they have call options falling due on AT-I bonds totalling Rs 23,300 crore during FY22.

“Capital will also be required to support credit growth as their internal capital generation could remain weak even next year. The ability of public banks to raise capital from markets will be critical to reduce GoI’s recapitalisation burden next year,” he added.

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Standard norms for travel insurance mooted

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Regulator IRDAI on Monday proposed standard guidelines for travel insurance with a view to ensuring uniformity and certainty about coverage, exclusions and terms of coverage for domestic as well as international travel.

The exposure draft, on which the IRDAI has invited comments from the stakeholders by January 6, 2021, includes standard terms and conditions, customer information sheet and use and file format. The draft details out the coverage and exclusions under domestic and overseas travel insurance. The insurance company will pay as compensation to the legal heirs/nominee the amount stated as sum insured if the insured suffers accidental bodily injury while overseas and this is the sole and direct cause of his Death within the period of 365 days, it said.

In the event of accidental death of a minor below 18 years of age, the maximum liability of the insurer would be limited to 50 per cent of the sum insured.

The policy also covers missed flight, loss of checked-in baggage, trip delay, loss of passport and repatriation of mortal remains.

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Loan Apps Scam: Experts raise concerns about regulatory gaps being exploited

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Five suicides within a week in Telangana allegedly linked to harassment by app-based illegal loan sharks and extortionate moneylenders have raised concerns about regulatory gaps being exploited by online scamsters. Telangana Police is investigating more than a dozen payday lending apps such as Loan Gram, Super Cash and Mint Cash.

An organisation that lends money to the public must be approved by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), but scores of lenders in India operate unlicensed through apps that can be easily downloaded. Some of them tie up with banks or NBFCs and act as their outsourcing partners for marketing and on-boarding customers.

“The problem comes when the apps are not transparent and do not disclose the full information to customers. The customers should be well informed that it is not the app which is lending but the bank or an NBFC. Any follow-up action that is assisted by those who run the app for the bank or NBFC will also have to be within the banking norms,” said R Gandhi, former Deputy Governor, RBI.

Stealing phone data

Unregulated payday lending apps offer easy credit, sometimes in a matter of minutes, from as little as ₹1,000 to ₹1 lakh. The interest rates range between 18 per cent to a whopping 50 per cent. The online lenders capture user data when the app is downloaded.

When a borrower defaults, the lender sends a text message to every number in the borrower’s phone book shaming them. Family members of some who recently committed suicide in Hyderabad allege that the companies went to the extent of calling up women in the contact book of the borrowers and started abusing them.

“There will have to be regulations when they impinge on customer protection and privacy. There were similar problems in P2P platforms as well and now they are regulated entities. These apps are the next step and here also, there is the same set of questions,” Gandhi noted.

Peer-to-peer or P2P is a form of direct lending of money to individuals or businesses without an official financial institution participating as an intermediary. P2P lending is generally done through online platforms that match lenders with the potential borrowers. As on July 16, 2020, RBI lists 21 registered P2P NBFCs.

RBI warnings

Even last week, the RBI issued a statement cautioning the public “not to fall prey to such unscrupulous activities and verify the antecedents of the company/firm offering loans online or through mobile apps”. “Consumers should never share copies of KYC documents with unidentified persons, unverified/unauthorised apps and should report such apps/bank account information,” it added.

In June 2020, the RBI issued guidelines to make digital lending more transparent and had directed banks, NBFCs and digital lending platforms to disclose full information upfront on their websites to customers and adhere to the fair practices code guidelines in letter and spirit.

With increasing reports of harassment and suicides, digital lenders who operate withing the RBI purview worry that the nascent industry could be permanently tarred.

“Most of these apps are fly-by-night operations that charge high processing fee and interest rates. The borrowers are also often unable to get a loan elsewhere and are forced to turn to them,” said Gaurav Chopra CEO, IndiaLends, an online lending platform, and Executive Committee Member, Digital Lenders Association of India (DLAI)

DLAI has issued a code of conduct that its member firms must follow.

Earlier this month, the Fintech Association for Consumer Empowerment (FACE) also published the ‘Ethical Code of Conduct to promote best practices in digital lending and to safeguard consumer rights and interests.

“We want to make sure our consumers are aware of the correct rate they have to borrow at and the best practices. They are not supposed to get a call at 11 pm. We don’t capture contacts from your phone book, so friends and family will never get a call,” said Akshay Mehrotra, Founding Member, FACE and Co-Founder and CEO, EarlySalary.

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Flexible inflation targeting: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”, say RBI officials

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Maintaining the inflation target at 4 per cent is appropriate for India in the backdrop of the steady decline in trend inflation to 4.1- 4.3 per cent since 2014, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) working paper.

The aforementioned observation assumes significance given that the flexible inflation targeting/ FIT (formally instituted in June 2016), which commits the RBI to a consumer price inflation (CPI) target of 4 per cent with an upper and lower tolerance band of +/- 2 per cent, has to be reviewed by end-March 2021.

The paper’s authors — Harendra Kumar Behera, Director, and Michael Debabrata Patra, Deputy Governor, RBI — underscored that: “The credibility bonus accruing to monetary policy warrants smaller policy actions to achieve the target (FIT). This points to maintaining the inflation target at 4 per cent into the medium-term. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

Real time trend inflation

The authors observed that trend inflation provides the metric to gauge the appropriate level of the target going forward.

According to the paper, central to the design and conduct of monetary policy is the concept of trend or steady state inflation. It is the level to which actual inflation outcomes are expected to converge after short run fluctuations from a variety of sources, including shocks, die out.

As per the paper, the real time estimate of trend inflation was around 5 per cent until the end of 2013, but it declined steadily thereafter to 4.1 per cent in Q1 of 2019, before inching up thereafter during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Smoothed probability estimates weighted average trend inflation – our preferred trend inflation estimates – declined from above 5 per cent until Q2 of 2008 to around 5 per cent by 2009.

“It eased steadily thereafter and remained at 4.3 per cent in Q1 of 2020,” authors Behera and Patra said.

The authors said it is worthwhile to note that trend inflation still remains above the target under FIT, although it is on a declining trajectory. This indicates that inflation expectations are not yet fully anchored to the target but convergence is under way, they added.

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Govt to soon initiate Bank Investment Company

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The government is likely to set in motion the process of establishing a Bank Investment Company (BIC) to hold its stake in public sector banks (PSBs) following substantial consolidation in the public sector banking space and clean-up of banks’ balance sheet in the last couple of years.

With the banking space seeing fast-paced changes vis-a-vis business models and technology, top bankers feel now is the right time to set up a BIC so that decisions can be taken quickly without the fear of the 3Cs — Central Vigilance Commission, Comptroller and Auditor General and Central Bureau of Investigation.

BIC was mooted in 2014 by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) PJ Nayak Committee Report to review governance of boards of banks.

While the government, as per one of the Committee’s recommendations, has already set up a Bank Boards Bureau (in 2016) for selecting the top management of PSBs, it has kept the BIC proposal on hold so far.

“PSBs are very large commercial organisations. We have to take quick calls. Currently, the 3Cs are holding us back to an extent. The holding company (Holdco) structure has to be formed now. The Government is believed to be evaluating this. This is the right time as our (PSBs) balance sheets are adequately provisioned ,” a top banker said.

Autonomy to public sector banks

Referring to several countries, including Singapore, the UK and Belgium, having intermediate investment companies to hold the equity in banks, the RBI report observed that this has operationally distanced the governments from the banks.

This has discouraged direct intervention and suasion, and has helped align the governments’ role as that of the principal shareholder in the banks, focused on financial returns, it added.

The report noted that the SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) example in relation to Axis Bank is broadly similar. The character of BIC’s business would make it resemble a passive sovereign wealth fund for the Government’s banks.

“Today, things are moving so fast that in one year the business model can change completely. The technology can change. So, we can’t wait for a year or one-and-a-half years for vigilance clearance to finalise a vendor. We have to be very quick, otherwise we will lose ground to the agile private sector rivals,” the banker quoted above said.

Recap burden

In the context of the Government facing fiscal constraints and its reported plan to have a maximum of four public sector units and a minimum operating unit in each of the 18 identified strategic sectors, top bankers opine it may be apposite to put in place a BIC.

The reason: by allowing more retail and private sector participation in the ownership of PSBs, the burden on the Government for recapitalising them will come down.

The RBI report emphasised that reducing the proposed BIC’s investment in a PSB to less than 50 per cent will free the bank from external vigilance emanating from the Central Vigilance Commission, from the Right to Information Act, and from Government constraints on employee compensation.

“The trade-off is worth grasping, as more competitive public sector banks will enhance financial returns to the Government with no effective dilution of control,” the Committee said.

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Bank of Baroda launches digital lending platform

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Bank of Baroda (BoB) has launched its Digital Lending Platform (DLP), which will allow prospective retail loan seekers to get loans digitally through a paperless process

The Platform provides ‘in-principle approval’ for home, car and personal loans in 30 minutes without human intervention, the public sector bank said in a statement. The bank will also offer ‘Online Loan against Fixed Deposits’ via DLP.

Prospective loan seekers can avail the DLP facility through multiple channels — website, mobile banking, internet banking and social media as well, it added.

BoB launches Atmanirbhar Women Gold Scheme

With the launch of DLP, BoB said personal loan disbursements will be completely digitised first, followed by MSME (micro, small and medium enterprises) and agriculture disbursements.

The bank envisages that the digital share of disbursement in retail lending will grow to 74 per cent over five years.

Digitising internally

BoB said pre-approved micro personal loan is being offered to select existing customers to shop through offline/online partner channels and pay later in easy EMIs (equated monthly instalments).

“Customers can also avail the amount into their savings bank account and convert it to EMIs from 3 to 18 months through m-Connect+ (the bank’s mobile banking app) in 60 seconds,” it added.

Bank of Baroda rolls out well-being programme for its employees

Vikramaditya Singh Khichi, Executive Director, said the primary objective of DLP is to scale the lending business through digitisation.

He observed that BoB has attempted to digitise itself internally in a bid to reduce time-to-market for its products. The bank envisages outpacing the banking industry growth by 1.50 times at a compounded annual growth rate of 16 per cent over the next five years by adopting digital-first lending approach across retail, MSME and agriculture segments, Khichi said.

Ramjass Yadav, Chief General Manager, Bank of Baroda, said DLP will help the bank to double the non-corporate book by 2025.

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SBI, PNB, other Indian banks see sharp fall in NPAs; these reasons to thank for improved asset quality

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SBI alone had recoveries to the tune of Rs 4,038 crores and has written off loans worth Rs 5,617 crores.

India’s largest PSU banks — State bank of India (SBI) and Punjab national bank (PNB) — saw a significant fall in non-performing assets in the fiscal’s second quarter. SBI, which accounts for the highest share of PSU Banks’ GNPAs at 20 per cent, reported the highest asset quality improvement in the second quarter. Its GNPA ratio fell to 5.3 per cent in September 2020, compared to 7.2 per cent in the same month last year. Another large PSU bank, PNB that accounts for 16 per cent share in overall PSU banks’ GNPAs, saw a fall in NPAs at 13.4 per cent in September 2020, compared to 16.8 per cent in the last year. 

The improvement in asset quality has majorly been due to recoveries and higher write-offs by the multiple banks. SBI alone had recoveries to the tune of Rs 4,038 crores and has written off loans worth Rs 5,617 crores, according to Care Ratings. Among other PSU banks, NPAs of Bank of India fell from 16.31 per cent to 13.79 per cent on year in Q2; Bank of Maharashtra (16.86 per cent to 8.81 per cent); Indian Overseas Bank (20 per cent to 13.04 per cent); and NPAs fof UCO Bank fell from 21.87 per cent to 11.62 per cent on-year in Q2.

The net NPAs of all banks also shrank significantly to Rs 2.1 lakh crores in Q2 FY21 from Rs 4.5 lakh crores in Q2 FY19, reflecting an increase in provision coverage ratio (PCR). The aggregate provision coverage ratio of all banks rose to 80 per cent at the end of Q2, from 68.9 per cent in the previous year. The GNPA ratio of scheduled commercial banks further improved to 7.7 per cent in the quarter ended September 2020, against 9.3 per cent in the year-ago period, and 8.2 per cent in the current fiscal’s first quarter, which was largely driven by PSU banks. 

The aggregate interest income recorded a marginal increase of 0.8 per cent during Q2 due to subdued credit offtake, coupled with falling interest rates. Additionally, the falling deposit interest rate in the quarter also led to a decline in interest expense of banks by 8 per cent, compared with 9.4 per cent growth in the year-ago period.

It is to be noted that the Supreme Court has ordered all banks to not classify Covid-19 related defaults as NPAs until further notice, or else the NPAs would have been higher in the second quarter. As per disclosures by banks studied by the rating agency, the Gross NPAs would have been around 0.5 – 0.6 per cent higher if these accounts been classified as NPAs. Meanwhile, IDBI Bank and Lakshmi Vilas Bank had the highest NPA ratios of around 25 per cent in the second quarter.  

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Take shareholders’ nod before appointing Shivan as MD & CEO, RBI tells Dhanlaxmi Bank

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The board of Dhanlaxmi had sent a list of five candidates to RBI for its approval after the incumbent Sunil Gurbaxani was voted out by majority of shareholders.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has asked the Dhanlaxmi Bank Board to get shareholders’ approval before appointing JK Shivan as the next managing director and CEO of the bank. The move is considered somewhat unusual since typically, the board appoints the candidate recommended by the regulator as additional director and then seeks the shareholders approval at the next AGM .

The board of Dhanlaxmi had sent a list of five candidates to RBI for its approval after the incumbent Sunil Gurbaxani was voted out by majority of shareholders.

An independent director the bank told FE the RBI must be concerned that the shareholders voted out a person nominated by the RBI. Gurbaxani was voted out from the post of MD and CEO by more than 90% of the shareholders on October 1 at the first AGM held after he was appointed in February 2020.

Sherry Samuel Oommen, corporate lawyer, told FE that under the Companies Act, 2013, Section 161, grants the board of directors the power to appoint any person other than a person who fails to get appointed as a director in a general meeting, as an “Additional Director”. Such director would typically hold office up to the date of the next annual general meeting.

“It may not be wrong supposition that the present postal ballot is being undertaken based on approval/fiat of the RBI under the Banking Regulation Act and/or based on the policy framework for ownership and governance of private sector bank which mandates that the incumbent CEO should satisfy the “fit and proper” criteria,”he added.

The bank is currently managed by a committee of directors and RBI has given the bank four months to appoint a new head. The lender has seen two of its MD and CEO resign before the end of their tenure after losing confidence of the shareholders. The bank had gone through a bad phase during 2008-2013 and was under the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework of the RBI for some time.

The bank Board has moved a resolution on December 26, as asked by RBI, for shareholders’ approval via electronic voting , for the appointment of Shivan as the next managing director and CEO the bank.The Bank has engaged the services of KFin Technologies as the authorised agency to provide e-voting facilities and shareholders can vote from December 27, 2020 onwards to Monday, January 25, 2021. The results of the e-voting will be declared by the Chairman on January 26, 2021.

Shivan has over 37 years of experience in State Bank of India (SBI) and has handled various areas of functional areas commercial banking. He retired as chief general manager of Stressed Assets Resolution Group of SBI and was working with Ernst & Young till March 2020.

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Bidding for DHFL: ‘Swiss Challenge’ idea doesn’t fly with creditors

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The Committee of Creditors (CoC) of the beleaguered DHFL has shot down the suggestion of the advisor and legal counsel to go in for a ‘Swiss Challenge’ method to decide on the winning bidder.

This was rejected as lenders felt the introduction of ‘Swiss Challenge’ would lead to legal complications and delay the entire process, sources close to the development said. Some bankers also felt that introducing ‘Swiss Challenge’ at this stage could be considered as a change of procedure (the original RFRP document did not mention ‘Swiss Challenge’) and invite objection from the original set of bidders. It may be recalled that as many as 21 persons had initially shown interest in submitting a resolution plan and participating in the resolution process for DHFL.

 

Introducing a ‘Swiss Challenge’, now which would have happened on electronic platform, would have meant that all the three bidders — Oaktree, Piramal and Adani Group — would be permitted to make offers against each other, implying that anyone can emerge the No 1 (winning) bidder. “In ‘Swiss Challenge’, everybody will know what the other person has initially bid and can increase the bid just like an auction. Since it is on an electronic platform, who is increasing the offer the other person will not know,” a former chief executive of a public sector bank said.

Decks cleared for voting

With the rejection of the proposal for ‘Swiss Challenge’, decks have now been cleared for the members of the CoC to evaluate and separately put to vote all the three resolution plans submitted by Oaktree Capital, Piramal and Adani Group, respectively. About 15 days from Sunday will be available for the voting process to be completed.

Indications are that the results of the voting will be available by January 13.

Only after the outcome of the voting will the distribution plan get finalised. This is crucial for the 79,000 odd depositors who are hoping that they will get some of their monies back post the resolution process.

Depositors hold 4 per cent of voting rights, while debenture-holders have 52 per cent. After several rounds of bidding, it is now evident that the Oaktree is the frontrunner, followed by Piramal and Adani Group (going by the Net Present Value), say bankers in private.

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Piramal highlights its bid for DHFL while responding to Oaktree’s concerns

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Responding to Oaktree Capital’s concerns on the DHFL resolution process, the Piramal Group highlighted its bid for the debt-ridden housing finance company.

“The Piramal plan merges DHFL with a AA rated entity, offers over ₹10,000 crore of equity immediately, and provides clarity on quality and secondary market valuation of NCDs. The alternative plan is a highly leveraged structure with minimal equity,” said a Piramal spokesperson.

 

The comments came after Oaktree Capital is understood to have sent a fresh letter to the Committee of Creditors of Dewan Housing Finance Corporation over the resolution process.

 

“All the bidders had the opportunity to submit bids post clarifications on December 22. After seeing our bid, and recognising that their bid falls short on various dimensions, Oaktree is now sending this series of letters, to alter the substantive submissions they themselves have formally made,” the Piramal spokesperson further said.

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