Acute shortage of crypto experts leads to hike in remuneration in India’s blockchain industry, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The number of active job openings in India’s blockchain industry has increased by 50 per cent since last year with 12,000 vacancies, according to Xpheno’s report, an Indian specialist talent solutions company.

The annual salary in the crypto industry has shot up to Rs 80 lakhs for crypto experts with 8 to 10 years of experience, according to the Xpheno report.

Kamal Karanth, the co-founder of Xpheno said that the mainstream visibility and talent-related progress of the crypto industry is still in its nascent stages, despite the industry being 12 years old.

The reason for such a sharp hike in remuneration is attributed to the shortage of a crypto talent base in India and abroad.

It is pushing up the salaries in Indian companies engaged with the global and domestic blockchain industry, the Economic Times reported.

Some other important findings about India’s crypto talent deficit in the Xpheno report are:

* Companies in the blockchain industry mostly search for employees having knowledge and experience in blockchain, machine learning, security solutions, Ripplex solutions, data analysis and front and back-end skills.

According to the Xpheno report, there is a 30 to 60 per cent shortage of skill-set with these specialisations.

* In niche skill areas such as data science and cybersecurity, the shortage is as high as 50 to 70 per cent.

* Karanth has predicted that the shortage of crypto-skilled workforce and the competition in wages will persist for the next two years.

In another report prepared by Nasscom, chamber of commerce of the trade industry in India and WazirX, the Indian crypto exchange, the following findings emerged about job vacancies in the crypto industry:

* Around 50,000 professionals are employed in India’s crypto industry currently.

* According to Sangeeta Gupta, senior vice president at Nasscom, a 30 percent increase in new jobs is expected in the coming months if the sector continues to grow at the current rate.

Since the cryptocurrency domain is still young,, there is a huge gap between the talent and available vacancies. Indian IT companies that are providing services to global clients, fintech start-ups, and consulting firms have been competing for experts in the crypto domain.



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Carry your cards, ATMs are not dying, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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There are various reports and discussions on how ATMs are going to vanish soon. But I don’t find any supportive data to believe in it. Digital payments are adding billions of transactions every month and POS terminals are also trying to add the features of ATMs but ATMs will stay in the system for a long time as cash still plays a dominant role in the economy. In fact, there are many restaurants and stores which do not accept any mode of digital payments and believe in only cash. Here is what RBI data of the last two years shows: ATMs are not dying.

State of ATMs – June 2020

Banks Total ATMs ATMs in Rural
PSU Banks 1,34,518 28,900
Pvt Banks 73,098 6,034
SFBs 1,935 199
White Label 23,790 11,807
Total ATMs 2,34,267 46,965

State of ATMs – June 2021

Banks Total ATMs ATMs in Rural
PSU Banks 1,36,889 26,858
Pvt Banks 73,750 6,281
SFBs 2,156 237
White Label 25,995 13,580
Total ATMs 2,39,761 47,011

The data shows that there is a slight increase in the total ATMs from 2020 to 2021. By June 2020 total ATMs were 2,34,267 which increased to 2,39,761 by June 2021. The slight decrease is in the number of rural ATMs by PSU banks may be due to bank mergers.

ATMs are a useful product

ATM was one of the biggest innovations in the banking industry much before digital payments. It killed the long serpentine queues at the bank branches where people used to spend hours to get cash. ATMs allow people to withdraw cash anywhere, anytime according to their convenience. RBI has also ensured that banks have enough ATMs and imposes penalty on banks which don’t maintain their ATMs.

Digital versus ATM

With the rise of digital payments, people have certainly shifted to mobile payments which are far more convenient. But that doesn’t mean that they are not using the cash. India’s cash to GDP ratio is 14.7%, which is much higher compared to the OECD countries.

For online shopping and small payments, people are using mobile payments, but for large payments, they still chose either cash or cheque.

The rise of POS

I often find that POS has been another product that is equivalent to ATMs. Over the years POS also added new features and it’s not just a payment receiving terminal. It has also started dispensing cash and that trend is rising. There are more than five million merchants using POS terminals and many of them are offering cash withdrawal. Recently a payment gateway company Mswipe told me that they are dispensing cash around Rs 50 lakh per day at POS terminals. POS will certainly help small-ticket transactions and areas where there are fewer ATMs.

Need for rationalising ATMs

India has on average 20 ATMs for 100,000 people, the global average is 50. I also find a big mismatch in the placement of ATMs in urban areas. There are areas where dozens of ATMs are set up within a vicinity of 2-3 miles, but there are areas where there are no ATMs at all. I think banks and financial institutions should review their placements. Also, ATM machines need to be upgraded with new features that will inform customers about the shortage of cash before using the machine.

Though people are using digital in villages as well, I am aware of people who travel for 10-12 miles to withdraw cash from ATMs. Jan Dhan Yojana has brought millions of people into banking but still there are many more millions away from banking. And they will need cash.



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Bank of India cuts home, vehicle loan rates, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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State-run Bank of India on Sunday announced a cut in its interest rates on home and vehicle loans by 35 basis point and 50 basis points, respectively.

With this cut, the interest rate on home loans starts at 6.50 per cent against earlier 6.85 per cent, and at 6.85 per cent against 7.35 per cent prior on vehicle loans, the bank said in a release.

This special rate, which is effective from October 18, 2021, till December 31, 2021, is available for customers applying for fresh loans and also for those seeking transfer of loans, it said.

The lender said it has also waived processing charges for both home and vehicle loans till December 31, 2021.

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HDFC Bank’s recast loans rise to 1.7%, NPAs ease, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai: HDFC Bank has reported a significant increase in restructured loans under the Covid relief scheme. Analysts are concerned that a large chunk of these loans might turn into non-performing assets (NPAs).

On the positive side, the bank has reported an improvement in gross NPA ratio by 12 basis points (100bps = 1 percentage point) quarter on quarter to 1.35%. Its subsidiary HDB Financial Services also reported a improvement in GNPA to 6.1% from 7.8% in the corresponding quarter last year.

“However, the restructuring pool for the bank surged sharply quarter on quarter to Rs 20,300 crore (1.7% of loans vs. 0.68% in Q1), mainly led by liberal restructuring in the personal loan book. As a prudent strategy, the bank made additional Rs 1,200 crore provisions in Q2 and now carries a contingent plus floating buffer of Rs 9,200 crore (0.8% of loans),” said Anand Dama of Emkay Global in a research note.

Addressing analysts on Saturday, HDFC Bank chief credit officer Jimmy Tata said, “Restructured loans are considered while making the provisions. If there were to be another shock, the balance sheet needs to be much more resilient, historically we have been conservative and our stance does not change”. He added that the bank was monitoring the restructured loan portfolio based on both pre- and post-Covid behaviour of the borrower. “We do not think the impact will be more than 10-20bps on our NPAs at any point in time,” he said.

The country’s largest private lender on Saturday reported a net profit of Rs 8,834 crore for the quarter ended September 2021, up 18% from the previous year.



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At least seven lenders, including Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank harness GIFT City facilities, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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At least seven lenders, including Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, are harnessing the GIFT City facilities to mark a robust Indian presence in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) currency derivatives market, potentially paving the way for eventual currency convertibility that’s considered a draw-card for overseas investments. Average daily volumes in over-the-counter trades at Gujarat GIFT City surged to an estimated $1.5-2 billion from $100-200 million about a year ago, four bankers told ET.

Among the other major participants in the NDF trade are State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra and Standard Chartered, executives said. “Daily average volumes have surged for offshore OTC NDF trades during the onshore time,” said Bhaskar Panda, executive vice president at HDFC Bank. “This has helped bridge gaps between offshore and onshore prices bringing in relative stability in the exchange rate. This in turn will help attract foreign investors, who always prefer full currency market convertibility.” IndusInd, Kotak and SBI didn’t comment.

The differential between one-month onshore and offshore forwards trade is now less than a paise, which would have been about four-five paise in normal circumstances. A wider differential encourages speculators to tap arbitrage opportunities short-selling rupees or dollars, a potential source for heightened volatility. The one-month Rupee Options Volatility index is now at 4.51 percent versus 7.63 percent nearly a year ago, show data from Financial Benchmarks India (FIBIL). “Axis Bank IBU Branch has been playing a significant role in the NDF markets at GIFT City,” said Lalit Jadhav, CEO – Axis Bank IBU Branch, GIFT City.

“We have a full-fledged Treasury Desk with robust risk controls and look at trading opportunities in this segment which can potentially help reduce volatility and drive price convergence between offshore and on-shore markets.” Before local banks were allowed to tap the NDF market at GIFT City, the Reserve Bank of India was unable to control NDF moves on the rupee-dollar. Now, the central bank even directs private banks along with traditional public sector lenders to buy or sell units, which is known as NDF market intervention.

“NDF business would be one of the core pillars of our business strategy at GIFT City that provides an excellent platform to meet the global banking needs,” said Anupam Verma, head – international banking unit, IFSC GIFT City, ICICI Bank. RBI had permitted Indian banks, which hold a licence to operate in the International Financial Services Centre in GIFT City – Ahmedabad, to participate in the NDF market from June 1 in 2020. “The liquidity has significantly improved in the NDF market at GIFT City with large local banks transacting,” said Anindya Banerjee, currency analyst at Kotak Securities.

“We are gradually moving towards full capital account convertibility making our exchange rate easily available.” RBI deputy governor T Rabi Shankar Thursday called for a preparedness to meet challenges related to full capital account convertibility as foreign investors get full access to India’s debt market under a dedicated route meant for global bond index inclusion.

“A key aspect of currency convertibility is integration of financial markets,” Shankar said at the fifth Foreign Exchange Dealers’ Association of India (FEDAI) annual day. “An effort has already commenced in the interest rate derivative segment.” “NDF-onshore spreads have substantially narrowed after allowing Indian banks into the NDF space,” he said.



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FPIs pull out Rs 19,000 cr from banking, financial stocks in H1; stay cautious in H2, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Amid the euphoria in the stock markets, the Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out close to Rs 19,000 crore from the banking and financial sectors in the first six months of the current fiscal.

On the other hand, they have raised their exposure on stocks in the defensive sectors such as consumer goods, IT, pharma and telecom.

According to sector-wise FPI flow data compiled from depositories, FPIs pulled out Rs 18,700 crore from the financial services sector between April and September. Of the total outflows, Rs 13,872 crore went from the banking sector while Rs 4,827 crore was pulled out from ‘other financial services’, which covers financial institutions, non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs).

Nifty Bank lagging far behind vis-a-vis Nifty 50 return on a YTD basis, while the leaders are Nifty Metals, Nifty Realty and Nifty IT.

Banking sector

Within the banking sector, the equity segment witnessed an outflow of Rs 12,964 crore during the April-September period while Rs 1,014 crore went out of the debt segment during H1. On the other hand, the other financial services category witnessed an inflow of Rs 1,159 crore in equities and outflow of Rs 5,797 crore from debt in the first six months of the current fiscal.

“A stand out feature of FPI flows in recent weeks is the outflows from banking and inflows into IT. Even though IT is highly valued, this segment is attracting increasing flows since earnings visibility is high in the segment while banking is struggling with poor credit growth and rising asset quality concerns, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.

Defensive sectors

FPIs have been investing in defensive sectors due to rising volatility with the ‘household & personal products’ sector witnessed the highest FPI inflows in the last six months at Rs 6,725 crore followed by consumer durables ( Rs 6,580 crore), retailing (Rs 6,340 crore), telecom (Rs 5,773 crore) and insurance ( Rs 2,881 crore).

Though the economy has recovered in the second half, the market participants are having a cautious outlook as there has been no big jump in loan growth and concerns on NPAs remain.

Going forward, volatility in the global markets as well as global slowdown may impact foreign flows moving into Indian shores.

Also, any direction by US Fed towards tapering of the stimulus measures would make FPI flows into emerging markets volatile and at the same time it would be crucial in dictating the direction of foreign flows into Indian equities.



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RBI asks banks to prepare for major changes in capital account convertibility, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Hinting at further relaxation in the capital account convertibility norms, RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar has said the country is on the cusp of some fundamental shifts with regard to currency management.

India has come a long way in achieving increasing levels of convertibility on the capital account and has broadly achieved the desired outcome for the policy choices in terms of achieving a stable composition of foreign capital inflow, Sankar said while addressing the Foreign Exchange Dealers’ Association of India’s (FEDAI) annual day meeting.

Although the Indian rupee is fully convertible for current account transactions, only limited capital account transactions are permitted by the RBI.

“…India is on the cusp of some fundamental shifts in this space with increased market integration in the offing and freer non-resident access to debt on the table. The rate of change in capital convertibility will only increase with each of these and similar measures,” he said.

With that comes the responsibility to ensure that such flows are managed effectively with the right combination of capital flow measures, macro-prudential measures and market intervention, the deputy governor further said.

He futher said market participants, particularly banks, will have to prepare themselves to manage the business process changes and the global risks associated with capital convertibility.

The degree of Balance of Payment convertibility of a country usually depends on the level of its economic development and degree of maturity of its financial markets.

Therefore, advanced economies are almost fully convertible, while emerging market economies are convertible to different degrees, Sankar added.

The regulator’s job

“The regulator’s job is somewhat different. As someone once said, the job of a regulator is like the gas regulator in the kitchen – it cannot ensure the quality of the dish, but it can prevent the kitchen from blowing up.

“The quality of the dish – that is, the efficiency with which the investment needs of the country are met – is up to how well authorised dealers and other intermediaries adjust to the increasingly fuller capital account convertibility,” Sankar said.

The balance of payments (BOP) of a country records all economic transactions of a country (that is, of its individuals, businesses and governments) with the rest of the world during a defined period, usually one year. These transactions are broadly divided into two heads – current account and capital account.

The current account covers exports and imports of goods and services, factor income and unilateral transfers. The capital account records the net change in foreign assets and liabilities held buy a country.

What is capital account convertibility?

The balance of payments, a statement of all transactions made between a country and the outside world, consists of two accounts — current and capital account. While the current account deals mainly with import and export of goods and services, the capital account is made up of cross-border movement of capital by way of investments and loans.

Current account convertibility refers to the freedom to convert your rupees into other internationally accepted currencies and vice versa without any restrictions whenever you make payments.

Capital account convertibility means the freedom to conduct investment transactions without any constraints. It would mean no restrictions on the amount of rupees you can convert into foreign currency to enable you, an Indian resident, to acquire any foreign asset. Under it, there would be no restraints on NRIs bringing in any amount of dollars or dirhams to acquire an asset in India.

The Tarapore committee

The S S Tarapore committee’s report on fuller capital account convertibility in 2006 argued that even countries that had apparently comfortable fiscal positions have experienced currency crises and rapid deterioration of the exchange rate, when the tide turns.

The report had said that most currency crises arise out of prolonged overvaluation in exchange rates leading to unsustainable current account deficits. An excessive appreciation of the exchange rate causes exporting industries to become unviable, and imports to become much more competitive, causing the current account deficit to worsen. Thus, it suggests transparent fiscal consolidation is necessary to reduce the chances of a currency crisis.



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Outward remittances under LRS rose 31%

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Outward remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for individuals rose about 31 per cent year-on-year (yoy) in July 2021 to $1.31 billion, mainly on the back of increase in expenses towards studies and travel, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.

The remittances were $995.16 million in the year ago period.

This comes even as the global economy seems to be gradually recovering from the unprecedented disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

As per RBI norms, all resident individuals, including minors, are allowed to freely remit up to $250,000 per financial year (April – March) for any permissible current or capital account transaction or a combination of both.

The Scheme was introduced on February 4, 2004, with a limit of $25,000 and revised in stages.

In July 2021, remittances towards studies abroad jumped about 53 per cent y-o-y to $423 million; towards travel by 41 per cent to $347 million;gift was up about 35 per cent to $175 million; and towards investment in equity/debt by 48 per cent to $50 million.

Remittance towards maintenance of close relatives was almost static at $243 million.

T Rabi Sankar, Deputy Governor, RBI, in a recent speech, observed that LRS for individuals, while it is open for both current and capital account transactions, is largely (more than 90 per cent) in current account transactions such as travel and studies.

“As the LRS Scheme has operated for some time, there may be a need to review it keeping in mind the changing requirements such as higher education for the youth, requirement of start-ups etc.

“There might even be a case for reviewing whether the limit can remain uniform or can be linked to some economic variable for individuals,” he said.

Outward remittance under LRS had come down about 32 per cent yoy (or by $6.08 billion) in FY21 to $12.68 billion ($18.76 billion in FY22) as the pandemic raged.

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Bond yields trend higher despite softer inflation

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Benchmark yield closed marginally higher this week despite positive inflation data even as rising crude prices, higher US treasury yields and domestic liquidity factor take precedence.

During the monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) halted the G-SAP programme while saying it would increase the quantum of VRRR auctions to Rs6 lakh crore by December.

The central bank last week conducted an 8-day Variable Rate Reverse Repo auction in which the cut-off yield came in at 3.9 per cent. In comparision, the cut-off for a 7-day VRRR auction had come in at 3.61 per cent in the first week of October. The increasing cut-off seems to reflect the central bank’s comfort in paying a higher rate to remove excessive liquidity.

On the positive side, retail inflation dropped to a five-month low of 4.35 per cent in September. Bond market participants are of the view that the next inflation print will most likely come in below 4 per cent due to a favourable base effect. Post that, there could be some rise in inflation, they say.

However, it seems the days when market cheered this sort of news seem to be over, at least temporarily so, as other factors weigh heavily on traders’ minds.

Rising crude price

The halting of G-SAP comes at a time when crude prices are gaining an upward momentum. Brent crude prices closed near the $85-mark last week, having risen by almost $2.5 in a week. To give a context, it has risen by almost $7 / barrel since the beginning of the month.

At the same time, the 10-year US treasury yield touched 1.63 per cent last week, before cooling to 1.575 per cent.

Bond dealers say if both the crude and the US treasury yields continue to rise, it could have an impact on the domestic yields.

Vijay Sharma, senior executive vice-president at PNB Gilts opines that the market is mainly looking at only these two factors.

“Rising crude prices and hardening US Treasury yields are the main factors that are driving the G-Sec yields higher. Under these adverse global conditions, the withdrawal of G-SAP has exacerbated the upmove. The market already knows that the next inflation print would likely come in below 4 per cent given the low base effect. Market participants will be watching out whether at 6.35-6.4 per cent levels, will the RBI do something to stabilise the yields. If crude prices and US treasury yields stabilise, the benchmark bonds could find demand returning at close to 6.4 per cent,” Sharma said.

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Life insurance sees good growth, claims fall post second wave

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The life insurance industry is slowly coming back to normal after facing a high claim burden in the first five months of the current fiscal following the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“The industry is doing well. With every passing month, business is improving. Private sector life insurance companies are doing well and public sector bank-led banca companies are doing especially well,” said Rushabh Gandhi, Deputy CEO, IndiaFirst Life Insurance.

In an interaction with BusinessLine, Gandhi said there are green shoots across the industry as well as for the insurers and there continues to be strong demand amongst consumers for life insurance.

“A large part of our portfolio is non-participating products; the contribution of protection business is growing. Quotations for term life are increasing. It is a visible and sustainable trend,” he noted. Claims, which shot up by nearly two to three times in the second wave of the pandemic compared to the first wave, have also come down for life insurers, he further said.

“In the first five months of the year, claims have been very high. Peak deaths happened in May and intimations came in June and July; now it seems to be easing,” he added.

Burdened by high claims, a number of life insurers have reported losses for the first quarter of the fiscal and have also been increasing premium rates.

According to IRDAI data, life insurance companies registered a 22.21 per cent growth in first year premium in September on a year on year basis. Of this, private sector companies registered a growth of 42.42 per cent while LIC recorded a growth of 11.55 per cent last month on an annual basis. IndiaFirst Life Insurance grew by 71.05 per cent in September.

Comeback

Analysts too expect the life insurance sector to continue to stage a full comeback in the second half of the fiscal.

“We have seen a healthy pick-up in growth in the past few months, with September 2021 witnessing healthy trends across most players. We believe premium growth would see strong traction over FY22, with continued focus on non-participating, annuity, while ULIP would see gradual recovery,” said Motilal Oswal in a recent report.

Care Ratings said that while Covid claims are likely to remain elevated in the second quarter, the impact should be minimised compared to the first quarter.

“In the first quarter of the fiscal, the growth in premiums, albeit muted, was driven by unit-linked products and protection plans. However, the life insurance sector witnessed significant claims in the first quarter due to the second wave of the pandemic and profitability suffered as companies made provisions and reserves to alleviate the impact of the claims,” it said.

Growth strategies

Commenting on growth strategies for IndiaFirst Life Insurance, Gandhi said the insurer has been focussing on credit life insurance and expects premium of about ₹300 crore from the segment this year.

“We have managed in our partnership with Bank of Baroda to get attachment rates of over 70 per cent and have started doing covers for all loan products,” he said, adding that the insurer is working on tie ups with a number of other lenders as well.

“Our strategy remains intact. We will remain a multi-channel distribution company with bancassurance as our main focus and contributing 80-85 per cent of premium. On agency, our focus will be on quality not quantity, while on banca our focus will remain on penetration,” he further said.

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