Month: October 2021

This Statement sets out various developmental and regulatory policy measures relating to (i) liquidity measures; (ii) payment and settlement systems; (iii) debt management; and (iv) financial Inclusion and customer protection.

I. Liquidity Measures

1. On Tap Special Long-Term Repo Operations (SLTRO) for Small Finance Banks (SFBs)

Small Finance Banks (SFBs) have been playing a prominent role in providing last mile credit to individuals and small businesses. A three-year special long-term repo operations (SLTRO) facility of ₹10,000 crore at the repo rate was made available to them in May 2021 to be deployed for fresh lending of up to ₹10 lakh per borrower. This facility was made available till October 31, 2021. Recognising the persisting uneven impact of the pandemic on small business units, micro and small industries, and other unorganised sector entities, it has been decided to extend this facility till December 31, 2021. Further, this will now be available on tap to ensure extended support to these entities.

II. Payment and Settlement Systems

2. Introduction of Digital Payment Solutions in Offline Mode

The Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies dated August 06, 2020 had announced a scheme to conduct pilot tests of innovative technology that enables retail digital payments even in situations where internet connectivity is low / not available (offline mode). Three pilots were successfully conducted under the Scheme in different parts of the country during the period from September 2020 to June 2021 involving small-value transactions covering a volume of 2.41 lakh for value ₹1.16 crore. The learnings indicate that there is a scope to introduce such solutions, especially in remote areas. Given the experience gained from the pilots and the encouraging feedback, it is proposed to introduce a framework for carrying out retail digital payments in offline mode across the country. Detailed guidelines will be issued in due course.

3. Enhancing Transaction Limit in IMPS to ₹5 lakh

Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) of National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) is an important payment system providing 24×7 instant domestic funds transfer facility and is accessible through various channels like internet banking, mobile banking apps, bank branches, ATMs, SMS and IVRS. The per-transaction limit in IMPS, effective from January 2014, is currently capped at ₹2 lakh for channels other than SMS and IVRS. The per-transaction limit for SMS and IVRS channels is ₹5000. With RTGS now operational round the clock, there has been a corresponding increase in settlement cycles of IMPS, thereby reducing the credit and settlement risks. In view of the importance of the IMPS system in processing of domestic payment transactions, it is proposed to increase the per-transaction limit from ₹2 lakh to ₹5 lakh for channels other than SMS and IVRS. This will lead to further increase in digital payments and will provide an additional facility to customers for making digital payments beyond ₹2 lakh. Necessary instructions in this regard would be issued separately.

4. Geo-tagging of Payment System Touch Points

Deepening digital payments penetration across the country is a priority area for financial inclusion. The setting up of Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF) to encourage deployment of acceptance infrastructure and create additional touch points is a step in this direction. To ensure a balanced spread of acceptance infrastructure across the length and breadth of the country, it is essential to ascertain location information of existing payment acceptance infrastructure. In this regard, geo-tagging technology, by providing location information on an ongoing basis, can be useful in targeting areas with deficient infrastructure for focussed policy action. Accordingly, it is proposed to lay down a framework for geo-tagging (capturing geographical coordinates -, viz., latitude and longitude) of physical payment acceptance infrastructure, viz., Point of Sale (PoS) terminals, Quick Response (QR) codes, etc., used by merchants. This would complement the PIDF framework by better deployment of acceptance infrastructure and wider access to digital payments. Necessary instructions will be issued separately.

5. Regulatory Sandbox – Announcement of the Theme for a New Cohort and On Tap Application for Earlier Themes

The Reserve Bank’s Regulatory Sandbox (RS) has so far introduced three cohorts. Six entities have successfully exited the First Cohort on ‘Retail Payments’ while under the Second Cohort on ‘Cross Border Payments’ eight entities are undertaking Tests. The application window for the Third Cohort of ‘MSME Lending’ is currently open.

With a view to preparing the fintech eco-system, it is proposed that the topic for the Fourth Cohort would be ‘Prevention and Mitigation of Financial Frauds’. The focus would be on using technology to reduce the lag between the occurrence and detection of frauds, strengthening the fraud governance structure and minimising response time to frauds. The application window for this cohort would be opened in due course.

In addition, based on the experience gained and the feedback received from stakeholders, it is proposed to facilitate ‘On Tap’ application for themes of cohorts earlier closed. This measure is expected to ensure continuous innovation and engagement with industry to enable a proactive response to the rapidly evolving FinTech scenario. The modified framework will be released today.

III. Debt Management

6. Review of Ways and Means Advances (WMA) Limits and Relaxation in Overdraft (OD) Facility for the State Governments/UTs

As recommended by the Advisory Committee (Chairman: Shri Sudhir Shrivastava) to review the Ways and Means Advances (WMA) limits for State Governments/UTs, the enhanced interim WMA limits totalling ₹51,560 crore were extended by the Reserve Bank up to September 30, 2021 to help States/UTs to tide over the difficulties faced by them during the pandemic. Considering the uncertainties related to the ongoing pandemic, it has been decided to continue with the enhanced WMA limits up to March 31, 2022.

It has also been decided to continue with the liberalized measures introduced to deal with the pandemic, viz., enhancement of maximum number of days of OD in a quarter from 36 to 50 days and the number of consecutive days of OD from 14 to 21 days, up to March 31, 2022. The above measures are expected to help States/UTs to manage their cash flows better. The details in this regard will be issued separately.

IV. Financial Inclusion and Customer Protection

7. Priority Sector Lending – Permitting Banks to On-lend through NBFCs – Continuation of Facility

With a view to increase the credit flow to certain priority sectors of the economy which contribute significantly to growth and employment, and recognizing the role played by NBFCs in providing credit to these sectors, bank lending to registered NBFCs (other than MFIs) for on lending to Agriculture (investment credit), Micro and Small enterprises and housing (with an increased limit) was permitted to be classified as priority sector lending up to certain limits in August 2019, which was last extended on April 07, 2021 and was valid up to September 30, 2021.

Considering the increased traction observed in delivering credit to the underserved/unserved segments of the economy, it has been decided to extend this facility till March 31, 2022. A circular in this regard will be issued shortly.

8. Internal Ombudsman for NBFCs

Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have played an important role in extending finance to niche sectors such as MSME, microfinance, housing, vehicle finance and have effectively complemented the efforts of banks through last mile financial intermediation. Several NBFCs have also successfully adopted digital modes to support the delivery of their financial products and services to a wide spectrum of customers.

The increased significance, strength and reach of NBFCs across the country has necessitated having in place better customer experience including grievance redress practices. Over the last few years, RBI has initiated various measures for consumer protection and grievance redress for customers of NBFCs, which include requiring NBFCs to appoint Nodal Officers for grievance redress (2013) and the launch of the Ombudsman Scheme for NBFCs (2018).

With a view to further strengthen the internal grievance redress mechanism of NBFCs, it has been decided to introduce the Internal Ombudsman Scheme (IOS) for certain categories of NBFCs which have higher customer interface. The IOS for NBFCs, which will be on the lines of IOS for banks and non-bank payment system participants, will require select NBFCs to appoint an Internal Ombudsman (IO) at the top of their internal grievance redress mechanism to examine customer complaints which are in the nature of deficiency in service and are partly or wholly rejected by the NBFCs. Detailed instructions in this regard will be issued separately.

(Yogesh Dayal)     
Chief General Manager

Press Release: 2021-2022/1003

On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its meeting today (October 8, 2021) decided to:

• keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 4.0 per cent.

The reverse repo rate under the LAF remains unchanged at 3.35 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 4.25 per cent.

• The MPC also decided to continue with the accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis and continue to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target going forward.

These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth.

The main considerations underlying the decision are set out in the statement below.

Assessment

Global Economy

2. Since the MPC’s meeting during August 4-6, 2021, the momentum of the global recovery has ebbed across geographies with the rapid spread of the delta variant of COVID-19, including in some countries with relatively high vaccination rates. After sliding to a seven-month low in August, the global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose marginally in September. World merchandise trade volumes remained resilient in Q2:2021, but more recently there has been a loss of momentum with the persistence of supply and logistics bottlenecks.

3. Commodity prices remain elevated, and consequently, inflationary pressures have accentuated in most advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs), prompting monetary tightening by a few central banks in the former group and several in the latter. Change in monetary policy stances, in conjunction with a likely tapering of bond purchases in major advanced economies later this year, is beginning to strain the international financial markets with a sharp rise in bond yields in major AEs and EMEs after remaining range-bound in August. The US dollar has strengthened sharply, while the EME currencies have weakened since early-September with capital outflows in recent weeks.

Domestic Economy

4. On the domestic front, real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 20.1 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) during Q1:2021-22 on a large favourable base; however, its momentum was dragged down by the second wave of the pandemic. The level of real GDP in Q1:2021-22 was 9.2 per cent below its pre-pandemic level two years ago. On the demand side, almost all the constituents of GDP posted robust y-o-y growth. On the supply side, real gross value added (GVA) increased by 18.8 per cent y-o-y during Q1:2021-22.

5. The rebound in economic activity gained traction in August-September, facilitated by the ebbing of infections, easing of restrictions and a sharp pick-up in the pace of vaccination. The south-west monsoon, after a lull in August, picked up in September, narrowing the deficit in the cumulative seasonal rainfall to 0.7 per cent below the long period average and kharif sowing exceeded the previous year’s level. Record kharif foodgrains production of 150.5 million tonnes as per the first advance estimates augurs well for the overall agricultural sector. By end-September, reservoir levels at 80 per cent of the full reservoir level were above the decadal average, which is expected to boost rabi production prospects.

6. After a prolonged slowdown, industrial production posted a high y-o-y growth for the fifth consecutive month in July. The manufacturing PMI at 53.7 in September remained in positive territory. Services activity gained ground with support from the pent-up demand for contact-intensive activities. The services PMI continued in expansion zone in September at 55.2, although some sub-components moderated. High-frequency indicators for August-September – railway freight traffic; cement production; electricity demand; port cargo; e-way bills; GST and toll collections – suggest progress in the normalisation of economic activity relative to pre-pandemic levels; however, indicators such as domestic air traffic, two-wheeler sales and steel consumption continue to lag. Non-oil export growth remained strong on buoyant external demand.

7. Headline CPI inflation at 5.3 per cent in August softened for the second consecutive month, declining by one percentage point from the recent peak in May-June 2021. This was primarily driven by an easing in food inflation. Fuel inflation edged up to a new high in August. Core inflation, i.e. inflation excluding food and fuel, remained elevated and sticky at 5.8 per cent in July-August 2021.

8. System liquidity remained in large surplus in August-September, with daily absorptions rising from an average of ₹7.7 lakh crore in July-August to ₹9.0 lakh crore during September and ₹9.5 lakh crore during October (up to October 6) through the fixed rate reverse repo, the 14-day variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) and fine-tuning operations under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF). Auctions of ₹1.2 lakh crore under the secondary market government securities acquisition programme (G-SAP 2.0) during Q2:2021-22 provided liquidity across the term structure. As on October 1, 2021, reserve money (adjusted for the first-round impact of the change in the cash reserve ratio) expanded by 8.3 per cent (y-o-y); money supply (M3) and bank credit grew by 9.3 per cent and 6.7 per cent, respectively, as on September 24, 2021. India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by US$ 60.5 billion in 2021-22 (up to October 1) to US$ 637.5 billion, partly reflecting the allocation of special drawing rights (SDRs), and were close to 14 months of projected imports for 2021-22.

Outlook

9. Going forward, the inflation trajectory is set to edge down during Q3:2021-22, drawing comfort from the recent catch-up in kharif sowing and likely record production. Along with adequate buffer stock of foodgrains, these factors should help to keep cereal prices range bound. Vegetable prices, a major source of inflation volatility, have remained contained in the year so far and are likely to remain soft, assuming no disruption due to unseasonal rains. Supply side interventions by the Government in the case of pulses and edible oils are helping to bridge the demand supply gap; the situation is expected to improve with kharif harvest arrivals. The resurgence of edible oils prices in the recent period, however, is a cause of concern. On the other hand, pressures persist from crude oil prices which remain volatile over uncertainties on the global supply and demand conditions. Domestic pump prices remain at very high levels. Rising metals and energy prices, acute shortage of key industrial components and high logistics costs are adding to input cost pressures. Weak demand conditions, however, are tempering the pass-through to output prices. The CPI headline momentum is moderating with the easing of food prices which, combined with favourable base effects, could bring about a substantial softening in inflation in the near-term. Taking into consideration all these factors, CPI inflation is projected at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22; 5.1 per cent in Q2, 4.5 per cent in Q3; 5.8 per cent in Q4 of 2021-22, with risks broadly balanced. CPI inflation for Q1:2022-23 is projected at 5.2 per cent (Chart 1).

10. Domestic economic activity is gaining traction with the ebbing of the second wave. Going forward, rural demand is likely to maintain its buoyancy, given the above normal kharif sowing while rabi prospects are bright. The substantial acceleration in the pace of vaccination, the sustained lowering of new infections and the coming festival season should support a rebound in the pent-up demand for contact intensive services, strengthen the demand for non-contact intensive services, and bolster urban demand. Monetary and financial conditions remain easy and supportive of growth. Capacity utilisation is improving, while the business outlook and consumer confidence are reviving. The broad-based reforms by the government focusing on infrastructure development, asset monetisation, taxation, telecom sector and banking sector should boost investor confidence, enhance capacity expansion and facilitate crowding in of private investment. The production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme augurs well for domestic manufacturing and exports. Global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and input costs, and potential global financial market volatility are key downside risks to domestic growth prospects, along with uncertainty around the future COVID-19 trajectory. Taking all these factors into consideration, projection for real GDP growth is retained at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22 consisting of 7.9 per cent in Q2; 6.8 per cent in Q3; and 6.1 per cent in Q4 of 2021-22. Real GDP growth for Q1:2022-23 is projected at 17.2 per cent (Chart 2).

11. Inflation prints in July-August were lower than anticipated. With core inflation persisting at an elevated level, measures to further ameliorate supply side and cost pressures, including through calibrated cuts in indirect taxes on petrol and diesel by both Centre and States, would contribute to a more durable reduction in inflation and anchoring of inflation expectations. The outlook for aggregate demand is progressively improving but the slack is large: output is still below pre-COVID level and the recovery is uneven and critically dependent upon policy support. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, contact intensive services, which contribute around two-fifth of economic activity in India, still lag considerably. Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector is below its pre-pandemic levels and an early recovery to its long-run average is critical for a sustained rebound in investment demand. Even as the domestic economy is showing signs of mending, the external environment is turning more uncertain and challenging, with headwinds from slowing growth in some major Asian and advanced economies, steep jump in natural gas prices in the recent weeks and concerns emanating from normalisation of monetary policy in some major advanced economies. Against this backdrop, the ongoing domestic recovery needs to be nurtured assiduously through all policy channels. The MPC will remain watchful given the uncertainties surrounding the outlook for growth and inflation. Accordingly, keeping in mind the evolving situation, the MPC decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent and continue with an accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis and continue to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target going forward.

12. All members of the MPC – Dr. Shashanka Bhide, Dr. Ashima Goyal, Prof. Jayanth R. Varma, Dr. Mridul K. Saggar, Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra and Shri Shaktikanta Das – unanimously voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4.0 per cent.

13. All members, namely, Dr. Shashanka Bhide, Dr. Ashima Goyal, Dr. Mridul K. Saggar, Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra and Shri Shaktikanta Das, except Prof. Jayanth R. Varma, voted to continue with the accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis and continue to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target going forward. Prof. Jayanth R. Varma expressed reservations on this part of the resolution.

14. The minutes of the MPC’s meeting will be published on October 22, 2021.

15. The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled during December 6 to 8, 2021.

(Yogesh Dayal)     
Chief General Manager

Press Release: 2021-2022/1002