Will October See A Rise In Gold Prices In India? What Is The Expectation?

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Investment

oi-Kuntala Sarkar

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Today, on the first trading day of October all investors are paying attention to the upcoming gold rates in the month. Today Indian gold rates hiked by Rs. 980/ 10 grams than yesterday. Gold prices in India only experienced a moderate hike since August, but mostly dropped. In July the monthly gold price change was at a positive 2.58%, while in August the same slipped by 2.11%, and again in September, it dropped by 4.08%. In September, the Indian gold rates dropped highest since March 2021 – when the prices were at the lowest levels in this year’s range. Hence, if the same bearish trend of September gold rates is passed on to October, the gold traders will certainly sound worried. But the situation changed from yesterday evening.

Will October See A Rise In Gold Prices In India? What Is The Expectation?

Why did gold prices rally yesterday?

Yesterday, both gold futures and spot gold prices stayed mostly in the range between $1722/oz to $1735/oz, till noon; some risk-hedging supported the bullion. But since the evening, the situation has changed. Global gold rates started to hit higher and again crossed the $1755 mark. The reason behind this sudden change was US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone about the country’s employment scenario. Today on October 1, both Comex October future and spot gold prices started with the $1755 range, which is a positive tone for gold traders.

October prices expectations

If the situation stays affirmative for gold in October, the metal can stay hefty in the range of $1755 to $1765, or more. But if the rates fall again, it can move around $1725 to $1700 in October. Ahead of the festive season in India, gold traders and the IBJA would prefer to keep gold rates in a strong range. However, that will depend on US economic trends, as gold is a dollar-dominated asset class.

October gold rates, in the whole month, will mostly depend on 2 factors. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index for inflation and the August non-farm payroll data will be published in the first week of October. Any positive tune of the employment data and the US inflation can only drag down the gold rates further this month. Otherwise, there are good possibilities that the prices can rally. But if the Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank is unhappy with the data and does not tighten the monetary policy soon, gold rates will continue to rally higher.

US employment concerns mattered

In the 1st week of August, gold rates faced a major challenge as the July employment data got published setting a very optimistic tone, suggesting fast recovery along with an earlier-than-expected tapering timeline. This trend continued in September moderately, until Fed Chair Powell testified before the House Committee on Financial Services and commented, the US is still “far from full employment.” The central bank will certainly require very promising employment data to back an interest rate hike, which is not expected very shortly now. The August non-farm payroll data can only confirm this. So, the gold rates might hike slowly with any more dovish sentiment from Chair Powell.

US debt ceiling factor

Along with Powell, yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also testified and said, “Credit of the US would be impaired, and our country will face financial crisis and an economic recession. It’s necessary to avert a catastrophic event for our economy.” Her comment was in concern with the US debt ceiling; as the government will run out of money on October 18. If the government does not raise the debt limit, the country will default for the first time in history, she cautioned. Yesterday US dollar index fell around 0.10%. With these concerns, if the US dollar index continues to slip in the foreign exchange, the gold rates will again be able to hike in October. However, today the US dollar index stood at 94.30 level in the spot market, today’s index change will be analyzed.

However, a gold trader must remember that the expectations of the tapering timeline are not faded away yet. The US Fed will meet again only in November to decide the tapering timeline. They are buying $120 billion in government-backed bonds each month now, which can be reduced. The expectations of tapering are affecting gold even before it starts. Also, as the US 10-year treasury yield is rising again around 1.5%, the gold prices will eventually drop in October. All of these will depend on the inflation and employment data.

US Inflation index

Both of these possibilities of gain and fall are only anticipated now. October gold prices will be influenced by the US Core PCE index which is a preferred tool by the US Fed to measure inflation. Powell commented, “We have to balance inflation and employment. Our expectation is inflation will come down, and we won’t have to have the two goals in tension.” Higher inflation can influence the central bank to hike interest rates, but that might be barred with poor employment status. So, the PCE data will impact both the tapering timeline, hence the international gold prices. The rates will similarly influence the Indian gold rates.

Gold prices falling will be a positive sign for the common Indians, who will be able to buy gold at lower rates. India imports gold from foreign markets, so the Indian gold prices depend on the ups and downs of the international gold rates. But if the prices continue to hike in the foreign markets, the Indian rates will gain again ahead of the festive season in the country.



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Reserve Bank of India – Press Releases

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(Amount in ₹ crore, Rate in Per cent)

  Volume
(One Leg)
Weighted
Average Rate
Range
A. Overnight Segment (I+II+III+IV) 4,55,112.80 3.31 0.01-3.60
     I. Call Money 10,424.61 3.37 1.95-3.55
     II. Triparty Repo 3,58,355.40 3.31 3.00-3.45
     III. Market Repo 86,332.79 3.31 0.01-3.60
     IV. Repo in Corporate Bond 0.00  
B. Term Segment      
     I. Notice Money** 340.37 3.15 2.75-3.25
     II. Term Money@@ 61.00 3.10-3.40
     III. Triparty Repo 55.00 3.20 3.20-3.20
     IV. Market Repo 170.00 3.15 3.15-3.15
     V. Repo in Corporate Bond 100.00 5.45 5.35-5.50
  Auction Date Tenor (Days) Maturity Date Amount Current Rate /
Cut off Rate
C. Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) & Marginal Standing Facility (MSF)
I. Today’s Operations
1. Fixed Rate          
     (i) Repo          
    (ii) Reverse Repo Thu, 30/09/2021 1 Fri, 01/10/2021 3,63,114.00 3.35
    (iii) Special Reverse Repo~          
    (iv) Special Reverse Repoψ          
2. Variable Rate&          
  (I) Main Operation          
     (a) Reverse Repo          
  (II) Fine Tuning Operations          
     (a) Repo          
     (b) Reverse Repo          
3. MSF Thu, 30/09/2021 1 Fri, 01/10/2021 217.00 4.25
4. Special Long-Term Repo Operations (SLTRO) for Small Finance Banks (SFBs)£          
5. Net liquidity injected from today’s operations
[injection (+)/absorption (-)]*
      -3,62,897.00  
II. Outstanding Operations
1. Fixed Rate          
    (i) Repo          
    (ii) Reverse Repo          
    (iii) Special Reverse Repo~ Fri, 24/09/2021 14 Fri, 08/10/2021 6,999.00 3.75
    (iv) Special Reverse Repoψ Fri, 24/09/2021 14 Fri, 08/10/2021 2,712.00 3.75
2. Variable Rate&          
  (I) Main Operation          
     (a) Reverse Repo Fri, 24/09/2021 14 Fri, 08/10/2021 3,44,515.00 3.60
  (II) Fine Tuning Operations          
     (a) Repo          
     (b) Reverse Repo Tue, 28/09/2021 7 Tue, 05/10/2021 1,97,123.00 3.99
3. MSF          
4. Long-Term Repo Operations# Mon, 17/02/2020 1095 Thu, 16/02/2023 499.00 5.15
  Mon, 02/03/2020 1094 Wed, 01/03/2023 253.00 5.15
  Mon, 09/03/2020 1093 Tue, 07/03/2023 484.00 5.15
  Wed, 18/03/2020 1094 Fri, 17/03/2023 294.00 5.15
5. Targeted Long Term Repo Operations^ Fri, 27/03/2020 1092 Fri, 24/03/2023 12,236.00 4.40
  Fri, 03/04/2020 1095 Mon, 03/04/2023 16,925.00 4.40
  Thu, 09/04/2020 1093 Fri, 07/04/2023 18,042.00 4.40
  Fri, 17/04/2020 1091 Thu, 13/04/2023 20,399.00 4.40
6. Targeted Long Term Repo Operations 2.0^ Thu, 23/04/2020 1093 Fri, 21/04/2023 7,950.00 4.40
7. On Tap Targeted Long Term Repo Operations Mon, 22/03/2021 1095 Thu, 21/03/2024 5,000.00 4.00
  Mon, 14/06/2021 1096 Fri, 14/06/2024 320.00 4.00
  Mon, 30/08/2021 1095 Thu, 29/08/2024 50.00 4.00
  Mon, 13/09/2021 1095 Thu, 12/09/2024 200.00 4.00
  Mon, 27/09/2021 1095 Thu, 26/09/2024 600.00 4.00
8. Special Long-Term Repo Operations (SLTRO) for Small Finance Banks (SFBs)£ Mon, 17/05/2021 1095 Thu, 16/05/2024 400.00 4.00
Tue, 15/06/2021 1095 Fri, 14/06/2024 490.00 4.00
Thu, 15/07/2021 1093 Fri, 12/07/2024 750.00 4.00
Tue, 17/08/2021 1095 Fri, 16/08/2024 250.00 4.00
Wed, 15/09/2021 1094 Fri, 13/09/2024 150.00 4.00
D. Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) Availed from RBI$       25,895.80  
E. Net liquidity injected from outstanding operations [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*     -4,40,161.20  
F. Net liquidity injected (outstanding including today’s operations) [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*     -8,03,058.20  
G. Cash Reserves Position of Scheduled Commercial Banks
     (i) Cash balances with RBI as on 30/09/2021 6,39,021.38  
     (ii) Average daily cash reserve requirement for the fortnight ending 08/10/2021 6,30,489.00  
H. Government of India Surplus Cash Balance Reckoned for Auction as on¥ 30/09/2021 0.00  
I. Net durable liquidity [surplus (+)/deficit (-)] as on 10/09/2021 11,83,556.00  
@ Based on Reserve Bank of India (RBI) / Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL).
– Not Applicable / No Transaction.
** Relates to uncollateralized transactions of 2 to 14 days tenor.
@@ Relates to uncollateralized transactions of 15 days to one year tenor.
$ Includes refinance facilities extended by RBI.
& As per the Press Release No. 2019-2020/1900 dated February 06, 2020.
* Net liquidity is calculated as Repo+MSF+SLF-Reverse Repo.
# As per the Press Release No. 2020-2021/287 dated September 04, 2020.
^ As per the Press Release No. 2020-2021/605 dated November 06, 2020.
As per the Press Release No. 2020-2021/520 dated October 21, 2020, Press Release No. 2020-2021/763 dated December 11, 2020, Press Release No. 2020-2021/1057 dated February 05, 2021 and Press Release No. 2021-2022/695 dated August 13, 2021.
¥ As per the Press Release No. 2014-2015/1971 dated March 19, 2015.
£ As per the Press Release No. 2021-2022/181 dated May 07, 2021.
~ As per the Press Release No. 2021-2022/177 dated May 07, 2021.
ψ As per the Press Release No. 2021-2022/323 dated June 04, 2021.
Ajit Prasad
Director   
Press Release: 2021-2022/969

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World Bank to extend $150 million to Chennai’s Sustainable Urban Services Programme

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Chennai, October 1

The World Bank will give $150 million loan to support the Government of Tamil Nadu’s Chennai City Partnership: Sustainable Urban Services Programme, which seeks to help strengthen institutions, improve the financial health of service agencies, and drive significant improvements in the quality of four key urban services — water supply and sewerage, mobility, health, and solid waste management.

This programme will support the Tamil Nadu Government in its efforts to transform the city and its services, while accelerating Chennai’s shift to a lower carbon and a more resilient growth trajectory. It will help Tamil Nadu Government , Greater Chennai Corporation (GCC), and key service agencies adopt new approaches to service delivery and bring a renewed focus on results for citizens, according to a statement from The World Bank.

The Chennai Metropolitan Area, home to about 10.9 million people, is India’s fourth-most populous metropolitan area. Despite being an economic powerhouse, Chennai has not kept pace with growing demand for key services. The coastal city also remains highly vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change and, as the Covid-19 emergency revealed, to pandemics. “This programme heralds the start of our partnership with the city of Chennai where we will work with Tamil Nadu Government to jointly create a more climate-friendly, resilient and inclusive model for managing urban growth. The experience emerging from this partnership can inform other Indian cities and, more broadly, India’s massive urban transition,” said Junaid Ahmad, World Bank Country Director in India.

Major components

The programme’s major components are water resource management including water supply and sewerage services, urban mobility, health services and solid waste management. The scheme will increase household connections and improve the quality of water and sewerage services. It will expand green modes of urban mobility—buses, walking, and cycling—along with improvements in their quality and inter-connectivity. It will also enhance disease surveillance and improve coverage and quality of primary health care services.

Integrated planning and management of these services through empowered coordinating agencies such as a Water Regulatory Authority and a Chennai Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority will also be part of this programme. The scheme will improve the financial performance of GCC and Chennai Metro Water Supply and Sewerage Board through increased revenue collection and/or reduction in operating costs.

The $150 million loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) is a variable spread loan that has a final maturity of 16-and-a-half years, including a grace period of five-and-a-half years.

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OYO IPO: Files Papers To Raise Rs 8,430 Crore In IPO

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Planning

oi-Sneha Kulkarni

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Oyo Hotels & Homes, a hospitality startup, has filed a draught prospectus with capital market regulator Sebi in order to raise $1.2 billion through a public offering, joining a rising number of businesses that are tapping into the public markets.

Oyo intends to issue up to 70 billion rupees worth of new shares, while existing shareholders may sell up to 14.3 billion rupees worth of shares.

OYO IPO: Files Papers To Raise Rs 8,430 Crore In IPO

SoftBank Vision Fund, Lightspeed Venture Partners, and Sequoia Capital India are among the company’s major backers.

OYO is valued at $9.6 billion as of August 20, 2021, after raising $5 million from Microsoft. According to the prospectus, the promoters include founder Ritesh Agarwal, his holding firm RA Hospital Holdings, and SoftBank Vision Fund, the three largest owners. According to reports, the business named Kotak Mahindra Capital, Citigroup, ICICI Securities, Nomura, and Bank of America as primary book managers for the public offering last month.

By early next year, the company is likely to be listed on Indian stock exchanges.

OYO background

Ritesh Agarwal founded Oravel Stays in 2012 to facilitate the listing and booking of low-cost hotels. In May of 2013, he flipped Oravel to OYO after months of research and experience in numerous bed and breakfast homes, guest houses, and small hotels around India.

OYO collaborates with hotels to provide world-class guest experiences in locations across the world. Ritesh Agarwal earned a $100,000 Thiel Fellowship grant from Peter Thiel shortly after starting Oravel Stays, which tremendously aided in the development of his company.

Over the years, the company grew to include thousands of hotels, vacation homes, and millions of rooms in hundreds of cities across India, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Nepal, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, the Philippines, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the United States, among others. It is even more valuable than the renowned Taj hotel company and the Oberoi hotel chain.

Funding Details

Date Stage Amount Lead Investors
August 20, 2021 Corporate Round $5M Microsoft
July 29, 2021 Corporate Round Microsoft
July 16, 2021 Debt Financing $660M
March 11, 2021 Debt Financing $200M Softbank Vision Fund
Jan 6, 2021 Series F $7M Hindustan Media Venture

Story first published: Friday, October 1, 2021, 12:51 [IST]



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Timely recoveries crucial for profitability of sale-bound IDBI Bank, says Icra, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Timely recoveries will be a key driver of net profitability for IDBI Bank, in the absence of which it may remain at sub-optimal levels in the near to medium term, rating agency Icra has said.

“IDBI Bank’s profitability includes one-time income driven by recoveries from fully-provided legacy stressed assets, and it has utilised the same for accelerated provisioning on other stressed assets and potential asset quality stress in future. Incremental slippages could remain high, given the reasonably large overdue book amid the weak operating environment and certain other vulnerable exposures, the rating agency said in a note while upgrading the rating for the Mumbai-based private lender’s bonds, debentures and tier-II capital instruments from “A” to “A+”

While the bank maintains one of the highest provision coverage ratios on its stressed assets, the timing of recoveries from these could remain uncertain, it said.

The rating upgrade

The rating upgrade factors in the sustained improvement in the credit profile of IDBI Bank Limited with expectations that the internal capital generation is likely to be sufficient for growth as well as for maintaining sufficient cushion over the regulatory capital requirements.

Due to the weak asset quality and capitalisation levels in the past, IDBI Bank was placed under the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework, thereby placing curbs on fresh wholesale lending. This, coupled with increased provision levels on NPAs, resulted in a sustained decline in the net advances to Rs. 1.23 lakh crore as on June 30, 2021 from the peak level of Rs. 2.19 lakh crore as on September 30, 2016. In contrast, the bank’s deposit base moderated less sharply to Rs. 2.23 lakh crore as on June 30, 2021, from Rs. 2.66 lakh crore as on September 30, 2016, that too driven by bulk deposits.

NPA generation

The bank has guided towards the normalisation of NPA generation at 2.0-2.5% in FY2022. However, this will remain contingent on its ability to contain incremental slippages, even as the overdue book, as indicated by the special mention account (SMA)-1 and SMA-2 book (corporate book and retail book combined), remained high at 3.6% of standard advances as on June 30, 2021 (3.3% as on March 31, 2021 and 3.4% as on March 31, 2020).

On a forward-looking basis, normalised operating profitability is expected to remain better compared to past levels although elevated operational costs on a reduced scale along with the continued impact of the high share of low/non-yielding assets on profitability will continue to weigh down the operating profitability, the rating agency said.



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Bank credit gathers pace in Aug 2020, led by retail, industrial sectors, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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As India‘s economic activity revives, bank credit has expanded to various sectors, led by retail and industrial sectors, in August 2021.

According to the Reserve Bank of India data, retail segment showed an accelerated growth of 12.1% in August 2021, compared with 8.5 % a year ago, on higher volume in housing and vehicle credit.

However, credit growth in services sector fell to 3.5% in August 2021 compared with 10.9% a year ago, mainly due to contraction in credit growth to NBFCs and commercial real estate.

Credit to industry rose to 2.3% in August 2021, from 0.4% in August 2020. Loans to medium size units rose to 63.4% in August 2021 against 4.4% last year, RBI said.

Credit to micro and small industries stood at 10.1% in August 2021, from a contraction of 1.1% a year ago, and credit to large industries shrunk by 1.7% in August 2021 compared with a growth of 0.5% a year ago.

Credit to engineering, chemical and chemical products, gems and jewellery, infrastructure, mining and quarrying accelerated in August 2021 as against a year ago, and credit to basic metal, cement & cement products, construction, vehicles, vehicles parts and transport equipment’ either decelerated or contracted, RBI said.



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2 Stocks To Buy From Infrastructure And Real Estate For Short Term By HDFC Securities

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Engineers India: Buy for a target of Rs. 93 for 3 months

HDFC Securities is bullish on the counter of Engineers India and recommends it as a ‘Buy’ for a target price of Rs. 93 in 3 months. This is a potential upside of over 18 percent from the stock’s last traded price of Rs. 78.5 per share. Stop loss suggested for the stock pick is Rs. 72.

Technical observations:

The scrip is in a short term uptrend as it has been making higher tops and higher bottoms for the last several sessions and has taken out its previous swing high of 76.3. In the previous session due to above average volumes the stock broke out of the 71-76 trading range.

As the stock trades above the 20 day and 50-day SMA, technical indicators suggest positive signals. Daily momentum indicators such as the 14-day RSI have recovered from oversold levels and are in rising mode currently. This augurs well for the uptrend to continue.

“With the intermediate technical setup too looking positive, we believe the stock has the potential to move higher in the coming weeks and therefore recommend a buy”, adds the brokerage firm

Notably, the brokerage recommends the buy on the counter in the price range of Rs. 74.5 to 77.3.

Engineers India is a top engineering consultancy and EPC company that delivers world-class projects for its clients globally. The company’s services are into supply chain management, project management, construction and other specialized services.

Stock Target price Potential upside Last traded price
Engineers India Rs. 93 >18% Rs. 78.5

DLF Ltd: Buy DLF for a target price of Rs. 469

DLF Ltd: Buy DLF for a target price of Rs. 469

The leading brokerage firm recommends buying the stock of realty major DLF in the price range of Rs. 417.25-393 for a target price of Rs. 469 to be realized in 3 months. This shall amount to potential gains of 13 percent from the last traded price of Rs. 414.8. Stop loss for the investment idea is suggested at Rs. 385.

Technical observations:

– Stock has formed new lifetime high on weekly chart which is positive sign.

– Higher top and higher bottom formation has been witnessed on all degrees.

– Price has given breakout and moved up sharply.

– Short term trend of the stock remains positive as it is trading above all key moving averages.

– Oscillators like MACD and DMI are showing strength in the stock.

– Plus DI is trading above Minus DI indicating momentum in the current uptrend.

” Considering the Technical evidences discussed above, we recommend buying the DLF at 417.25 and average at 393, for the upside targets of 452 – 469, keeping a stop-loss at 385″, adds the brokerage report.

DLF or Delhi Land & Finance founded in the year 1946, started its real estate journey by developing 22 urban colonies in Delhi. Currently, it is the largest publicly listed real estate entity that has residential, commercial as well as retail properties across 15 states and 24 cities.

Stock Target price Potential upside Last traded price
DLF Rs. 469 13% Rs. 414.8

Disclaimer:

Disclaimer:

The investment ideas are picked from the brokerage report of HDFC Securities. Investors should note that investing in stocks is risky and neither the author, nor Greynium nor the brokerage would be responsible for losses based on a decision from the above article.

GoodReturns.in



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Reserve Bank of India – Tenders

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Human Resource Management Department (HRMD), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Central Office, 20th Floor, Central Office Building, Shahid Bhagat Singh Marg, Fort, Mumbai – 400 001 invites on-line proposals through e-Tendering process from eligible companies registered in India for empanelment of Agency/ Service Providers/ Vendors for providing full range of Support function solutions for its Lateral Recruitment processes.The agencies intending to participate in the empanelment process shall submit their bids online as per the Tender document which may be may downloaded from RBI website and MSTC website from the following URL: https://www.rbi.org.in & https://www.mstcecommerce.com/eprochome/RBI

The tender document shall not be issued by any other means under any circumstances whatsoever. Corrigenda or clarifications, if any, shall be hosted on the above-mentioned websites only. RBI reserves the right to accept or reject any tender.

Last date for submission of tender: 1500 hrs of October 28, 2021

CGM
HRMD
RBI Central Office, Mumbai

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BC Patnaik takes charge as MD of LIC

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BC Patnaik has taken charge as Managing Director of Life Insurance Corporation of India on Friday. “He was appointed as Managing Director by Government of India notification dated July 5, 2021,” LIC said in a statement.

Also read: DIPAM shortlists Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas as legal advisor for LIC IPO

Prior to taking charge as Managing Director of LIC, Patnaik was Secretary General, Council for Insurance Ombudsmen, (CIO) Mumbai. He joined LIC of India in March 1986 as a Direct Recruit Officer.

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BC Patnaik takes charge as MD of LIC

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BC Patnaik has taken charge as Managing Director of Life Insurance Corporation of India on Friday. “He was appointed as Managing Director by Government of India notification dated July 5, 2021,” LIC said in a statement.

Also read: DIPAM shortlists Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas as legal advisor for LIC IPO

Prior to taking charge as Managing Director of LIC, Patnaik was Secretary General, Council for Insurance Ombudsmen, (CIO) Mumbai. He joined LIC of India in March 1986 as a Direct Recruit Officer.

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