All about RuPay, India’s payments network, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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-By Ishan Shah & Tarika Sethia

What is RuPay?

The National Payments Corporation of India’s (NPCI) brainchild, RuPay is a native card payments network initiated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It is a financial services and payment services system launched in 2012 and dedicated to the country in 2014. A fusion between ‘rupee’ and ‘payment’ inspired its name along with the intent to bring India into the global payments market via its indigenous card facility.

Why was RuPay launched?

The proposition of a cashless India was enhanced with the introduction of the RuPay cards. Building a cashless economy requires financial inclusion and RuPay reached rural India and boosted digital payments with the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana scheme. Under PMJDY, 258 million RuPay debit cards were issued in 2020 alone from public sector banks under the Indian government’s financial plan. From 15% in 2017 to over 60% in 2020, RuPay’s Indian market share has accelerated.

Moreover, with no domestic payments network, banks were forced to pay high affiliation charges to multinationals like Mastercard and Visa for trusted associations. Hence, NPCI was created as a non-profit payments company to construct an affordable and accessible payments network for Indians.

Where are RuPay cards accepted?

They are accepted at all ATMs, by POS machines in India, and for domestic online and offline shopping. They aren’t accepted internationally except at those ATMs, POS machines and e-commerce websites where ‘Discover Financial Service’ (DFS) and ‘Diner’ is enabled. Presently, cards under RuPay Global are accepted at over 42.4 million POS locations and over 1.90 million ATM locations in over 185 countries.

Why a RuPay card?

Being a domestic framework, banks issuing RuPay cards are at an advantage as they are not required to pay network registration fees unlike in the case of a Visa or MasterCard registration. With a zero merchant discount rate (MDR), banks have also agreed to charge nothing on UPI and RuPay card transactions. This has made RuPay transactions preferable while also stimulating FinTechs to innovate and provide better payment products to customers because of the ease of UPI and RuPay payments framework.

All about RuPay, India's payments network

It also has a greater reach in rural areas. Under the PMJDY scheme, free RuPay debit cards were given to all bank account holders. As all processing of transactions happens in the country, there is also a lower settlement cost.

RuPay has both debit and credit cards for individuals, corporates, and prepaid cards; there’s a ‘Kisan Credit Card’ available as well. There’s also a ‘contactless’ card that facilitates transactions on a single tap, making payments without disclosing crucial card details.

What does RuPay’s future look like?

With a recent ban on new issuances by MasterCard, RuPay has an opportunistic freeway to capture the credit and debit card market in India. As of November 2020, around 603.6 million RuPay cards have been issued by nearly 1,158 banks.

All about RuPay, India's payments network

Banks are also pushing towards a higher RuPay card issuance after FM Nirmala Sitharaman said, “RuPay card will have to be the only card you promote. Whoever needs a card, RuPay will be the only card you would promote and I would not think it is necessary today in India when RuPay is becoming global, for Indians to be given any other card first than RuPay itself,” at the 73rd annual general meeting of the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) last year.

Even in the credit space, Visa and MasterCard have made themselves comfortable at the top with huge amounts of credit card transactions happening via POS machines. RuPay can conquer the card space.



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Equitas SFB, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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PN Vasudevan, MD & CEO, Equitas SFB, talks about the impact of Covid second wave on collection efficiency. However, he believes that the impact is not going to be long term or structural. Edited excerpts:

It has been a relatively better quarter in a very tough environment and this is on account of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic but NIMs have improved compared with the last quarter and operating profit has also improved. There is some stress can you take us through the performance that you have seen?
Yes, I mean we all know that most of the first quarter was really under lockdown because of the wave-2 and people were not able to go out, customers were not able to open their shops, so it was definitely a lot of stress period during this period. Unlike last year, the level of health impact was much higher even though the time period of the wave was so much shorter but the health impact was higher so people were definitely not to take any risk of going out during that time. So, all that did have its impact on our business and collections.

On top of that, this year RBI had announced restructuring program but they had not announced a moratorium period. In our case most of our borrowers are small business people, who when they open their shop, make money and they repay the loans, when they cannot open their shops there is very little that they actually can do. Last year, because of moratorium they were not moved into NPA, they just went under moratorium but this year, since there was no moratorium they either had to pay or ask for a restructuring or their DPD just keeps moving up so that was the scenario this year. We did see an increase in NPA, we went up from 3.6 to 4.6% and we did see a slippage of about 375 crores which was lower than the previous quarter, but still one of the highest that we have seen in the past but very significantly what we have to see, is the level of upgrades. We had an upgrade of nearly about 150 crores.

Can you give us the sense of what the slippages and the recoveries are going to be over the next couple of quarters, I know it is going to be hard to predict but quite a few of the financiers that we have spoken to have said that stress continues in the segments that you operate in?
So, historically our annual slippages have been in the range of around 3-4%, that has been historically our trend of slippages and recoveries used to be around 2%-2.5%. This year, this first quarter we had a spike in the slippage, but we also had a good strong recovery upgrade also happening. So, going forward into the second and the subsequent quarters of the current financial year, we believe that we are mostly through with our wave-2 impact on the books. We have rescheduled about 900 crores between first quarter and July and we have also indicated that we might have a potential restructuring of another between 500 to 700 crores for the rest of the year.

I think mostly the stressed customers should have been fully supported and taken care of and provided for. So, we do not really expect much of slippages like what we saw in the first quarter, we do not really expect that to continue in the second and the subsequent quarters while the upgrades should keep the momentum going because the quality of NPA is much better than what it has normally traditionally been and so we do expect better upgrades but the slippages should significantly come down going forward.

Want to talk about your book and your approach to growing the book, a lot of companies have taken a very cautious stance in light of the current scenario. What approach are you going to take?
If you look at our client profile, most of them are small business people and practically all of them are first time borrowers in the formal financial sector. We have been dealing with this segment of people now for more than 11 years. So, we understand the segment very well and we have a very strong cash flow based credit assessment program which is running on the ground and so we can take a very nuanced call in terms of the credit decision for this profile of borrowers. We are very comfortable with our customer segment. These stresses that we are seeing are all definitely an event triggered temporary kind of a disruption. We do not see it as a structural or a long term kind of an issue in the market or at the customer profile segment. We should continue to be looking to pursue growth as and when the market opens up and supports our operations on the ground.

So, we are not really going to take a call in terms of cutting back or pulling back for fresh disbursement or anything like that. These customers have proven their track record with us for over 10 years and so that is a very strong indication of the quality of these borrowers. So we will continue to keep looking for opportunities to disburse whenever the market is conducive. In terms of credit growth, I think last year we had a 15% credit growth, this year should probably be slightly better than that.

Your liability franchise has been one of the best compared to the other small finance banks, you have strong deposit momentum as well as your CASA ratio is best at 40%. What has actually led to this strong performance here?
Liability has been silver lining in terms of our performance for the last few quarters not just the last one. It has come about, because of a lot of initiatives which were taken by the team and put in place over the last may be six quarters or so. Offering 7% rate for certain buckets of savings pool is just one of them, it is not the only. You know we have put in multiple channels to reach out to specific set of customers. Our NRI segment is doing really well, we had more last year into our VRM channel, that is virtual relationship manager channels, we are now providing a relationship manager service to a set of depositors at a level–where there have not been services through our RM channel in the other banks.

We are able to do that on cost effective basis through our VRM channel and our map book on the high net worth individuals also has been growing very strongly. So, we have improved and increased our product offerings and range to depositors. Today, our product holding of more than two product per client is in the range of around 70% of our depositors, so there have been multiple efforts done and to top up all of this is our digital foray which we commenced last year in the month of Jan-Feb.

We have launched our Selfe savings account programme, where people can open an account online in a matter of a few minutes and that has been doing well and then we had a tie up with the fintech company also about few months back, adding further momentum to the whole CASA story.

One of the factors that the street has been keenly watching is the merger of Equitas holdings and Equitas Small Finance Bank. Can you take us through what we can expect and how this is going to take place?
So, we have got an approval from RBI that we are to apply for the merger before the end of our five year period. Our five year ends on 4th of September this year, we had a board meeting last week and the board of both the companies have approved the merger with the swap ratio of 226 shares of the bank for every 100 shares of the holding company held by the shareholders of the holding company. So, the applications have been made to the stock exchanges and RBI and we need to get the RBI approval, we need to get the exchanges approval, we also need to get the SEBI approval and once we get all these approvals, then we would have to apply to NCLT and then convene shareholders meeting and shareholders’ approval will be taken and subsequently NCLT will have to approve, so all of these approvals we believe could take about an year’s time. We can bring this entire merger process to your completion by then and the shareholder of the holding company when we went public in 2016, we had made it clear right then also that at the end of five years, the hold co. will seek to merger of the bank because we never intent that the hold co. will do any business of its own and so continue to exist independently. We had always indicated that as our way forward and I think today what we are doing is really a culmination of that process and hopefully we should be able to deliver on the promise that we have made in our 2016 IPO of the hold co.

Can you take us through what is your overall growth strategy over the next three to five years also is there an intent to convert to a universal finance bank?
You know we are eligible to apply as per RBI guidelines, we are eligible to apply for a universal bank licence at the end of five years. As I mentioned, we will be completing five years by 4th of September this year, and post that the board will take a call and subsequent approval by the board, we should be applying to RBI for converting into universal bank. We really do not know exactly what will be the procedure that will be followed, so we are probably the first finance bank which will be seeking conversion into universal bank, so we will have to figure out how the process will work.

We really do not have an idea in terms of how long it will take etc. but be that as it may, as far as the bank is concerned, whether we are a universal bank or small finance bank, I do not see any particular change in our strategy or positioning at all. Our focus on the different profile of borrowers will continue to remain exactly where it is, we have built a very strong strength in funding and in understanding the credit capabilities and collection mechanisms of the low income group, so, our focus will continue to remain on that and we will continue to build on our strength that we have built over the last 10-12 years. Over a three year-five year period, if you look at it we should be continuing to grow at around 20-25% growth, that is something that we should continue to look at going forward on a sustainable basis. Historically, we have seen as high as 35 percent growth. Even if we get the licence of universal bank, I do not think that is going to change the focus of our business.



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Nainital Bank celebrates 100th foundation day, to open 25 new branches, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NAINITAL: Nainital Bank celebrated its 100th foundation day on Saturday and organised several events to pay tributes to its founding fathers, including Bharat Ratna Pt. Govind Ballabh Pant Ji.

A havan was organised in its head office in Nainital on July 30 while saplings were planted on Saturday. All Covid protocols were followed during the celebrations, said bank officials.

On the occasion, Dinesh Pant, MD & CEO of the bank, inaugurated its regional office, Haldwani, in a new premises. He mentioned that the bank was on a growth trajectory. Nainital Bank aims to open 25 new branches during the current financial year.

While addressing the gathering of the bank’s customers, shareholders, stakeholders and staff members, Pant informed that the bank had already started the process for implementation of Finacle 10x platform, a state-of-the-art technology to compete with other tech-savvy banks. He added that the bank will increase its branches to 250 and its total business to Rs 20,000 crore by March 2025.



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National Pension System: Here’s All You Need To Know About Two Types of Investment Options

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What are the investment options under NPS?

When subscribing to the CRA system under NPS, an NPS member must select a Pension Fund Manager (PFM) and also a scheme choice. To open an NPS account one needs to be a citizen of India, whether a resident or a non-resident, must be between the ages of 18 and 60 at the time of registration to the POP/ POP-SP. While filing the registration form, applicants must follow the Know Your Customer (KYC) guidelines before submitting the duly filled application form along with the required documents.

The active member or subscriber has a number of alternatives to opt for. Multiple PFMs, investment choices (Auto or Active), and four asset classes (Equity, Corporate Debt, Government Bonds, and Alternative Investment Funds) are available in NPS. The account holder initially picks the PFM, after which he or she can choose from any of the investment alternatives. The subscriber must choose between Active Choice and Auto Choice for his or her investment strategy.

NPS Active Choice: Individual Funds

NPS Active Choice: Individual Funds

Under this sort of investment option, the subscriber has the flexibility to actively choose how his or her money is allocated based on personal preferences. The PFM, Asset Class, and percentage allocation to be undertaken in each scheme of the PFM must be provided by the subscriber. Under a single PFM, the allocation is to be selected from the following four asset classes (equity, corporate debt, government bonds, and alternative investment funds), according to PFRDA.

  • Asset class E – Equity and related instruments
  • Asset class C – Corporate debt and related instruments
  • Asset class G – Government Bonds and related instruments
  • Asset Class A – Alternative Investment Funds including instruments like CMBS, MBS, REITS, AIFs, Invlts, etc.

As seen below, a subscriber can pick various Asset Classes under a single PFM:

  • Up to the age of 50, you can deposit up to 75 percent of your overall asset allocation towards equity.
  • From the age of 51 onwards, the maximum allowed equity investment will be determined by the equity allocation chart presented below. Alternative Investment Funds cannot contribute more than 5% of their investments. The overall allocation throughout asset classes E, C, G, and A must be 100 percent.

Equity Allocation Matrix for Active Choice

Age (years) Max. Equity Allocation
Upto 50 75%
51 72.50%
52 70%
53 67.50%
54 65%
55 62.50%
56 60%
57 57.50%
58 55%
59 52.50%
60 & above 50%
Source: npscra.nsdl.co.in

NPS Auto Choice: Lifecycle Fund

NPS Auto Choice: Lifecycle Fund

Investors who have lack of necessary skills to administer their NPS contributions can opt for this choice provided by NPS. The contributions under this option will be placed in a life-cycle fund. A pre-defined portfolio (which fluctuates with the subscriber’s age) will choose the percentage of funds invested across three asset classes. According to the official website of NSDL “A subscriber who wants to automatically reduce exposure to more risky investment options as he/she gets older, Auto Choice is the best option. As age increases, the individual’s exposure to Equity and Corporate Debt tends to decrease. Depending upon the risk appetite of Subscriber, there are three different options available within ‘Auto Choice’ – Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative.” The following are the specifics of these funds:

LC75 - Aggressive Life Cycle Fund

LC75 – Aggressive Life Cycle Fund

Equity investments are limited to 75 percent of the total assets in this Life cycle fund. The equity investment allocation begins at 75% until the subscriber reaches 35 years of age, then steadily decreases as the subscriber matures.

Age (years) Asset Class E Asset Class C Asset Class G
Up to 35 years 75 10 15
36 71 11 18
37 67 12 21
38 63 13 24
39 59 14 27
40 55 15 30
41 51 16 33
42 47 17 36
43 43 18 39
44 39 19 42
45 35 20 45
46 32 20 48
47 29 20 51
48 26 20 54
49 23 20 57
50 20 20 60
51 19 18 63
52 18 16 66
53 17 14 69
54 16 12 72
55 years & above 15 10 75
Source: npscra.nsdl.co.in

LC50 - Moderate Life Cycle Fund

LC50 – Moderate Life Cycle Fund

Equity investments are limited to 50% of the total assets in this life cycle fund. The equity investment allocation begins at 50% until the subscriber reaches 35 years of age, then steadily decreases as the subscriber matures.

Age (years) Asset Class E Asset Class C Asset Class G
Up to 35 years 50 30 20
36 48 29 23
37 46 28 26
38 44 27 29
39 42 26 32
40 40 25 35
41 38 24 38
42 36 23 41
43 34 22 44
44 32 21 47
45 30 20 50
46 28 19 53
47 26 18 56
48 24 17 59
49 22 16 62
50 20 15 65
51 18 14 68
52 16 13 71
53 14 12 74
54 12 11 77
55 years & above 10 10 80
Source: npscra.nsdl.co.in

LC25 - Conservative Life Cycle Fund

LC25 – Conservative Life Cycle Fund

Equity investments are limited to 25% of the overall assets in this Life cycle fund. The equity investment allocation begins at 25% until the subscriber reaches 35 years of age, then steadily decreases as the subscriber matures.

Age (years) Asset Class E Asset Class C Asset Class G
Up to 35 years 25 45 30
36 24 43 33
37 23 41 36
38 22 39 39
39 21 37 42
40 20 35 45
41 19 33 48
42 18 31 51
43 17 29 54
44 16 27 57
45 15 25 60
46 14 23 63
47 13 21 66
48 12 19 69
49 11 17 72
50 10 15 75
51 9 13 78
52 8 11 81
53 7 9 84
54 6 7 87
55 years & above 5 5 90
Source: npscra.nsdl.co.in



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Venugopal Dhoot moves NCLAT to set aside NCLT order on Videocon, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Venugopal Dhoot, has moved the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) against the June 8, 2021 order of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) Mumbai approving the bid of Vedanta Group company Twinstar Technologies Limited to acquire the bankrupt Videocon Industries Limited for ₹2,962 crores.

Dhoot has petitioned NCLAT to set aside the ‘Resolution Plan’ approved by the NCLT and allow seeking of fresh resolution plans for all assets of the group, including all foreign oil and gas assets.

In his petition, he listed three respondents filed at the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) on Saturday—Videocon Group resolution professional Abhijit Guhathakurta, the committee of creditors (CoC), and Twin Star Technologies

The petition also requested NCLAT to direct the Committee of Creditors to consider the ‘Resolution Plan’ submitted by him under Section 12A of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) that entails a “zero haircut” (involving no loss to the banks/ creditors).

Dhoot stated in his petition that the resolution professional had violated Sections 30(2) and 61(3)(ii) of the IBC. He accused the resolution professional of withholding information in the tender form and eroding the value of the company by closing it down.

Commercial wisdom exercised by lenders is “arbitrary and irrational and does not reflect any applicability of mind by rejecting a proposal which was 10 times higher and submitted at an early stage of the process”, he said.

Dhoot further added, “The liquidation value of these oil assets is not less than ₹15,000 crore. As such RP (resolution professional)/ COC (committee of creditors) has no authority to sell oil assets and consumer durables separately. If the RP had sold oil and consumer durables together, he would have got minimum of ₹25,000 crores against a loan of ₹49,000 crores (₹29,000 crores of consumer durables business and ₹20,000 crores of oil assets)”

“Thus recovery would have been around 50% and not 5% as seen today,” he added.

There are 35 financial creditors of Videocon, of which 19 major creditors include SBI, Union Bank, IDBI, Central Bank, BOB, and ICICI Bank who approved the resolution at a December vote. This implied a 95.85% haircut. But three minority shareholders, Bank of Maharashtra, SIDBI, and IFCI rejected the resolution on the ground of low resolution and filed an appeal in NCLAT.



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Edelweiss Suggest Buying These 2 Stocks After Q1Fy22 Results For Gains Up To 26%

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1. Shriram Transport Finance Company:

For this NBFC company, Edelweiss in its latest report has retained the previous recommendation ‘Buy’ and also raised the price target to Rs. 1700. The last traded price for the Shriram Transport is Rs. 1344.55, this suggest an upside potential of over 26%.

Q1Fy22 performance: Results mostly in line with Edelweiss’ estimates

The NBFC company fared as per the estimates of the brokerage in terms of both revenue as well as PPOP. Nonetheless, PAT or profit after tax came in lower due to higher credit cost. Disbursements at the company were a positive and registered just 15% decline on a sequential basis because of the strong line up in the previous quarter, hence a better performance in comparison to peers.

Asset quality deteriorated though at a lower rate as was foreseen by the brokerage house. Collection efficiency of the NBFC major with focus mainly in vehicle financing also improved month on month and came in at 94%.

Double digit AUM growth, reduced credit cost, better disbursements some of the key triggers

The management has guided for a double digit AUM growth as well as lower credit cost in FY22 as against FY21. Also, it is mulling merger of the group companies’ to realize cost benefit and cross-sell synergies.

Valuation and outlook: The brokerage firm hails the view that Shriram Transport is well placed to capture the revival in the CV cycle due to (a) it being the largest player in the CV financing space, (b) lower-than-expected restructuring, and (c) better than-expected asset quality. “The stock is trading at a significant discount of approximately 50% to Cholamandalam, which could reduce given the company’s growth and asset quality trajectory. We Maintain ‘BUY’ rating with a target price of INR1,700, valuing it at 1.7x FY23E ABPS”, said Edelweiss.

Fy2021 Fy2022E
EPS Rs. 98 103
Price to earnings(x) 14.1 13.5
Price to book(x) 1.8 1.6

2. Zydus Wellness:

2. Zydus Wellness:

Zydus Wellness’ started off its journey into the consumer wellness segment with the Sugar Free product it launched in the year 1988. And now the company has as many as 7 brands under its bouquet namely Sugarlite, Complan, Sugar Free, Glucon-D, Everyuth, Nycil and Nutralite.

After its Q1FY22 results, Edelweiss has maintained a ‘Buy’ on the scrip of Zydus Wellness for a target of Rs. 2673 per share. The stock last traded at a price of Rs. 2144.90, implying an upside of 24.62 percent from here.

Q1Fy22 results of Zydus Wellness:

The wellness company’s performance was steady for the period under review, the revenue went higher by 11% YoY with improvement in some of the brands including Complan, Sugar Free and Everyuth categories. Margin stood steady again despite an increase in milk as well as the price of palm oil. Also, to mitigate the impact of rising input costs, the company raised the prices by 2% during April -June quarter. Because of improving cost efficiency, EBIDTA also came in higher and operating margin also went up by a margin on a YoY basis. PAT or profit after tax improved significantly as the company went on reducing debt by a substantial amount to Rs. 450 crore from Rs. 1500 crore in the last year.

Valuation and outlook: “The brokerage maintains ‘BUY’ on Zydus Wellness and says in its report that “with the easing of lockdown restrictions, we expect ZWL to deliver stronger performance going forward, owing to its diversified portfolio, slew of new launches over the last two years and enhanced distribution reach. Given its lean balance sheet and negative working capital days, ZWL is trading at an attractive valuation of 37x/30x FY22/FY23E earnings. We reiterate ‘BUY’ rating on the stock and maintain target price of INR2,673/share”, said the brokerage firm.

Strong positives for the scrip of Zydus Wellness as viewed by the brokerage:

-Lean balance sheet with significant reduction in debt over the last one year

-Cost efficiencies

-Wide distribution network with over 5.5 lakh outlets, wider product portfolio

– Planning disintermediation i.e. mulling to directly service the market as other market players.

– Continuous replenishment model that will cut down on inventory.

Fy2021 Fy2022E
EPS Rs. 18.6 57.2
Price to earnings(x) 114.1 37.2
Price to book(x) 3 2.8

GoodReturns.in

Disclaimer:

Disclaimer:

Stock market investments are risky and investments listed are taken from brokerage reports. These should not be construed as investment advice and one should always ascertain their risk profile and other measures before taking any stock market bet.



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Repo rate hike may still be three-four quarters away

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There has been a lot of volatility in the fixed income market in the last one-and-a-half years on the domestic as well as global fronts amid the pandemic. As the pandemic spread across the world, central banks cut rates and infused liquidity into the market.

By December 2020, when the world felt it has overcome the problem, the second wave struck. As we come out of the second wave, governments all over the world are cautious about the Delta wave.

In this backdrop, as members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) go into a huddle between August 4 to 6, they will size up the retail inflation reading, which has been above the MPC’s upper tolerance level of 6 per cent in May and June, and the anaemic growth.

The members are seen voting in favour of keeping the repo rate unchanged and persisting with the accommodative policy stance to nurture economic recovery and sustain it.

Once growth gains momentum and is back to the pre-pandemic levels, the MPC is expected to gradually drain the excess liquidity from the financial system, then change the policy stance and, finally, start hiking rates.

Given that the MPC is committed to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis and continue to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 on the economy, a rate hike may be three-four quarters away.

Focus on growth

So, in the upcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review, the MPC is expected to stay focussed on growth since the economy is opening up gradually and, by October policy, the RBI may react in line with global rates, which may start inching upwards. The 10-year yield is expected to trade in the range of 6.00-6.25 per cent in the near term and may start moving upwards gradually.

There was a lot of debate when inflation numbers started inching upwards during the pandemic. How can inflation increase when there is a slowdown? In the backdrop of two consecutively high retail inflation readings above 6 per cent (MPC has a comfort level at 4 per cent), RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that these numbers are transitory in nature, and the headline number is expected to come below 6 per cent, going ahead.

The main culprit driving the rising inflation numbers was higher commodity prices, which pushed the input prices upwards, and it further percolated into prices of end products. If input prices keep increasing, firms will pass on this increase to end consumers as demand recovers after the second wave.

At its last meeting, OPEC decided to increase oil production, which has helped bring oil prices down. However, at about $73 a barrel, oil prices continue to be higher than last year’s $45. India, being a net importer of oil, will bear the brunt.

Also, the service industry (contact-intensive sector), which faced severe slowdown due to the pandemic, might see price increase when it opens up. Monsoon will play a key role in food inflation since July is the month when one-third of sowing takes place normally. Hence, most of the sowing will depend on monsoon, going ahead.

Q2 expected to be good

Growth numbers have been volatile since March 2020. As the second wave abated faster than feared, economies all over the world started opening-up gradually. Developed countries with faster vaccination roll-out are opening-up much faster than emerging markets, which are struggling with vaccination due to supply constraints.

On the domestic front, by mid-July 2021, high frequency indicators such as power demand, E-Way bills, power consumption and mobility index were showing positive signs with the gradual unlocking of States.

Government spending is expected to be good even as private investments take some time to pick up. Exports will be the silver lining that will balance the shortfall in growth numbers.

After the second wave, there has been a sharp increase in unemployment rate in rural areas. The MNREGA scheme of the government will play a key role in rural employment and bringing rural consumption back on track.

Overall, the July to September 2021 quarter is expected to be good based on pent-up demand, vaccination drive, favourable policy initiatives in the past and global growth.

Fiscal policy

MPC was the prime moving force last year after Covid outbreak, but going ahead, rate cuts will be less effective. Hence, the baton passes on to fiscal policy from the MPC. It has become imperative for the government to provide employment, food and health-related support to vulnerable sections of the society, and continue with aggressive disinvestment when the equity markets are high.

The downside risks include limited capex plans, partial restrictions in key States and concerns over the third wave, which may impact the industrial as well as service segments. Prolonged economic recovery, if the third wave hits, along with no significant improvement in current vaccination drive due to supply constraint, remain major unforeseen risks.

(The author is CIO-Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund. Views expressed are personal)

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Why demand for Covid health cover is infectious

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The Covid-19 pandemic has, in a way, redefined the perceptions around health insurance, acting as a catalyst for the growth of health cover.

According to insurers, it has given the biggest push to health insurance demand since liberalisation in the 1990s, triggering positive shifts in the perception, processes and products in the industry.

The catalytic impact of Covid on the health insurance scenario is quite phenomenal in terms of demand.

“There has certainly been an increase in demand for health insurance policies, owing to the awareness raised by Covid-19 pandemic,” TA Ramalingam, Chief Technical Officer, Bajaj Allianz General Insurance, told BusinessLine.

The perception about health insurance has changed from a mere tax-saving tool to an indispensable financial security tool.

“We have observed that there has been approximately a 40 per cent year-on-year increase in demand for health insurance policies,” said Ramalingam.

In a new trend, many customers are also looking to increase the sum insured of their base policy, he added.

There has been a realisation of the need to have an adequate cover to meet a major chunk of health expenditure in case of unforeseen risks such as Covid. “For instance, if a person has a ₹3 lakh health cover, they are looking to increase it to ₹5 lakh cover; a person with ₹5 lakh cover is interested in buying a ₹10 lakh cover. Additionally, they are also opting for super top-up policy to enhance their sum insured,” said Ramalingam.

According to Sanjay Datta, Head -Underwriting & Claims, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company, there has been much learning from the Covid experience.

“One of the major learnings is the recognition of the need to have a risk product to cover oneself and one’s family members.

“The digital offerings, as well as customer awareness of digital solutions to meet health cover requirements, have also gone up. There has been a lot of streamlining of processes as well,” said Datta.

Product innovation and standardisation are now an integral part of the lexicon for all stakeholders – the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), industry players and customers.

Shift in demand

There are shifts in the nature of demand for health cover. Unlike last year, now there has been a decline in demand for Covid-specific health insurance policy for two reasons. “This is being driven by reduction in Covid cases in our country. Secondly, and more importantly, people are now looking to buy comprehensive health insurance policies,” said Ramalingam.

In a significant move, the insurance regulator had introduced standard Covid-specific products, Corona Kavach and Corona Rakshak, to be offered by non-life and life insurers mandatorily for a period of nine-and-a-half months in July last year.

Though the initial response was dull, the demand for Covid-specific cover picked up significantly between March and September 2020 in the backdrop of surging cases.

Assuming that there will be no third wave, general insurers expect greater demand for standard basic health cover policy, Aarogya Sanjeevani, introduced by the IRDAI before the attack of the pandemic.

It has been seen as a game-changer for health cover as it offers a simple, understandable basic health cover.

However, the product has been overshadowed by Covid concerns and people preferred Covid-specific policies to a standard health over. Once Covid becomes history, this product could catch the attention of general public, feel experts.

Claims

“Due to the second wave, we have seen more than 100 per cent of Covid claims in the first quarter of the current fiscal compared to the entire FY21. Covid-19 claims constitute around 45 per cent of overall health claims in Q1 FY22, compared to 17 per cent for the same period last year,” Ramalingam added.

However, insurers expect lower traction, going forward. There is already a declining trend of Covid cases in some parts of the country, and insurers are hopeful that as the vaccination drive gains more momentum, there could be an even more decline in the number of cases.

Is it sustainable?

While all these factors have boosted demand since April 2020, industry experts are also hoping that the new levels of demand for health insurance will be sustained, going forward.

“The massive surge in demand is a welcome trend. However, there are fears of the ensuing third wave all around, which might have contributed to increase in demand. We are keeping our fingers crossed that the situation attains normalcy,” said the CEO of a large private life insurer.

He also sees customer satisfaction as a challenge. “In most cases, an objective examination of Covid claims being made allows us to settle only a part of the claim, leading to disaffection. Insurance goes by defined norms in claim settlement. We need to educate customers, too, on this front,” said the CEO.

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Goldman Sachs to raise pay for junior investment bankers: report

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc is raising salaries for its junior employees in the investment bank division, Business Insider reported on Sunday.

The bank’s second-year analysts will now make $125,000 in base compensation, while first-year associates will earn $150,000, Business Insider reported citing two people familiar with the situation.

No formal announcement about the pay raise has been made and it was unclear which other levels of employees at the investment banking division have also been given salary increases, the report from the financial and business news website said. Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

Goldman Sachs sets up centre in Hyderabad

Investment banks have raised pay for first- and second-year associates this summer in an attempt to ease the strain on these workers and compensate them more for their work supporting more senior staff in a year of unprecedented deal making.

Citi Group, Morgan Stanley, UBS Group AG and Deutsche Bank AG have already increased pay for their first-year analysts to around $100,000, a raise of about $15,000.

‘Saturday rule’

In February, a group of junior bankers in Goldman’s investment bank told senior management they were working nearly 100 hours a week and sleeping five hours a night to keep up with an over-the-top workload and “unrealistic deadlines.” Half of the group, which consisted of 13 first-year employees, said they were likely to quit by summer unless conditions improved.

Goldman Sachs to set up 250 beds across 4 hospitals in Bengaluru

Goldman’s Chief Executive Officer David Solomon has said the bank was working to hire more associates to help with the workload, and vowed to enforce the “Saturday rule,” which prohibits employees from working between 9 pm Friday night and 9 am on Sunday, except in certain circumstances.

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As Covid wave ebbs, UPI transactions hit record in July, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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UPI continues to record growth despite lockdown restrictions aided by the pandemic.

Unified payment interface (UPI) transactions rose to record 3.24 billion transactions in July, up 15 per cent over June, while value-wise the transactions were up 10.7 per cent at Rs 6.06 lakh crore.

The performance

The platform saw 2.8 billion transactions worth Rs 5.47 lakh crore in June, up 10.6 per cent in volume terms and 11.56 per cent in value terms over May.

UPI transactions fell in volume as well as in value for the second consecutive month in May as lockdowns restricted economic activity.

About 2.53 billion transactions worth Rs 4.9 lakh were recorded in May, a 4.16% drop in volume and 0.6% fall in value compared with April, according to National Payments Corp of India data.

Digital payment index

Digital payments recorded a growth of 30.19 per cent during the year ended March 2021, reflecting the adoption and deepening of cashless transactions in the country, RBI data showed.

As per the newly constituted Digital Payments Index (RBI-DPI), the index rose to 270.59 at the end of March 2021, up from 207.84 a year ago.

“The RBI-DPI index has demonstrated significant growth in the index representing the rapid adoption and deepening of digital payments across the country in recent years,” the RBI said.

The Reserve Bank had earlier announced the construction of a composite Reserve Bank of India – Digital Payments Index (RBI-DPI) with March 2018 as a base to capture the extent of digitisation of payments across the country.

The RBI-DPI comprises five broad parameters that enable the measurement of deepening and penetration of digital payments in the country over different time periods.

These parameters are — Payment Enablers (weight 25 per cent); Payment Infrastructure – Demand-side factors (10 per cent); Payment Infrastructure – Supply-side factors (15 per cent); Payment Performance (45 per cent); and Consumer Centricity (5 per cent).

UPI on the fast track

UPI transaction volumes surged 43.2% in the first quarter of the last fiscal, 98.5% in the second quarter 104.6% in the third and 112.5% in the fourth quarter.

While IMPS volumes degrew 9.6% in Q1, they rose 26% om Q2. 40.5% in the third quarter and 42.9% in the fourth quarter.

National Automated Clearing House (NACH) volumes grew 32.8 in the first quarter, 13 in second, 0.9 in third while they degrew 10.2 in the fourth.

BBPS volumes grew 66% in Q1, 103.2 in Q2, 84.4 in Q3 and 102.7 in Q4 while National Electronic Toll Collection, the NHAI’s Fastag system logged 83.9 growth in Q1, 249.2 in Q2, 195 in Q3 and 75.3 in the fourth quarter.

On the other hand, RTGS volumes degrew 26.2 in Q1, logged 3.1 in Q2, 10.2 in third and 31.1 in the fourth quarter.

NEFT volumes degrew 3.9% in the first quarter, grew 9.8 in second, 23.2 in third, 17.8 in the fourth quarter.



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