Importance of Claim ID For Making NPS Withdrawal After 60 Years of Age

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Importance of Claim ID for making online claims

  • Claim ID is required if the subscriber desires to file a withdrawal request in the online mode in case of Superannuation/Premature exit.
  • Claim ID will be issued six months prior to the date of superannuation or reaching the age of 60 for superannuating subscribers. For all such circumstances where a Claim ID has been generated, Nodal Offices will be able to initiate a withdrawal request in the CRA system.
  • If the subscriber initiates the withdrawal request, the Nodal Office shall authorise it in the CRA system.
  • In the event of an early or pre-mature exit, the Nodal Office must generate a Claim ID for the subscriber in order for them to file an online request.
  • Claim ID is not required if the Nodal Office initiates the withdrawal request on behalf of the subscriber.
  • If a subscriber attempts to issue a withdrawal request with a Claim ID that has not been generated, a notification will be displayed stating that the subscriber is not permitted to make any withdrawal requests.
  • Only once the Nodal Office generates the Claim ID, the subscriber can submit a withdrawal request in the CRA system.
  • The subscriber will be asked to validate the details entered. The request will be logged into the CRA system once it has been confirmed. On the successful filing of a withdrawal request, the CRA system will generate a Claim ID and an Acknowledgement Number.

How NRIs Can Open NPS Account Online?

Generation of Claim ID by Nodal Office

Generation of Claim ID by Nodal Office

For all subscribers who will retire in the next six months, CRA will issue and disseminate Claim IDs. The Nodal Office can record withdrawal requests owing to superannuation/exit at 60 years only using these Claim IDs. The Claim ID can be generated by the Nodal Office for a subscriber who has submitted premature exit or a subscriber who has expired and the claimant has requested withdrawal so that they can make the online request. The following is the procedure for the Nodal Office to generate a Claim ID:

  • By logging into the CRA System using the User ID and I-Pin, the Nodal Office can issue Claim ID for Superannuation, Premature Exit, and withdrawal requests for death cases.
  • When a user visits the CRA website, they should go to the ‘Exit Withdrawal Request’ option and then to the ‘Initiate Generate/Cancel Claim ID’ section.
  • In the specified field, the user will enter the subscriber’s PRAN.
  • From the dropdown menu, the user will choose Death, Premature Exit, or Exit at 60/Superannuation as the withdrawal option or type.
  • The request will be submitted by a Nodal Office user, and an Acknowledgement Number will be issued.

Approval of request

Approval of request

  • Using a second User ID and I-Pin, another Nodal Office User will enter into the CRA system (www.cra-nsdl.com).
  • The user must choose the ‘Authorise Generate/Cancel Claim ID’ option.
  • The ‘Claim ID’, ‘Acknowledgement No.’, or ‘PRAN and Date Range’ will be required to enter by the user.
  • The user will authorise the request by clicking on the ‘Acknowledgement No.’ After authorising the request, a Claim ID will be issued for the PRAN.

Exit options from NPS at the time of superannuation or at the age of 60

Subscribers have the option of stay invested in NPS for up to 70 years or exiting NPS. At the time of superannuation or at the age of 60, subscribers of NPS have the following options:

Continuation of account and stay invested: Subscribers can continue to contribute to their NPS account until they reach the age of 70 and receive a tax benefit on their contributions.

Suspension of withdrawal: Up to the age of 70, a subscriber can postpone his or her withdrawal and remain invested in NPS. Subscribers can choose to delay only lump-sum withdrawals, annuity, or both lump-sum withdrawal and annuity.

Can start receiving pension: Subscribers can exit NPS if they do not want to continue/defer their account. He or she can submit an exit request online and, will be allowed to start receiving pension if the NPS exit rules are followed.



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HSBC appoints Hitendra Dave as India CEO

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HSBC on Monday announced that Hitendra Dave will be appointed as Chief Executive Officer of HSBC India on receipt of regulatory approval. He has been appointed interim Chief Executive Officer, with effect from June 7.

“Dave succeeds Surendra Rosha who, after three years, is moving to Hong Kong as the Co-Chief Executive of HSBC, Asia-Pacific,” the bank said in a statement.

HSBC India partners with Google Pay for tokenisation on its credit card portfolio

Dave, formerly Head of Global Banking and Markets of HSBC India, has almost 30 years’ work experience in the Indian financial markets, of which the last 20 have been with HSBC.

A post graduate in Business Administration, Dave joined the bank in 2001 in the Global Markets business.

HSBC India’s digital banking for corporate customers

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The outlook is uncertain but use of digital will keep increasing: Tarun Chugh

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It is an uncertain time for the life insurance sector amidst the ongoing second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and forecast of a third wave, said Tarun Chugh, Managing Director and CEO, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance. In an interview with BusinessLine, he said that while the industry is expecting higher claims, it is not much of a concern. Excerpts:

What is your outlook for this year?

It is uncertain at this point of time. Normally, when we start the first quarter, we are clear about the strategy, but it is an uncertain time this year given how things have panned out in May. It is very difficult to forecast anything. This year, we are going more with scenario planning and not a forecast of the year as we don’t know when this wave will end and then there is a forecast of a third wave. The only thing we are certain about is that the usage of digital will keep increasing and we expect customers to still get life insurance in their portfolio because of the desire to cover risks.

Are high mortality claims an issue for the life insurance industry?

In respect to Covid claims, Bajaj Allianz Life has settled over 1,300 claims amounting to more than ₹74 crore. We are sensing that there will be higher mortality and impact on some claims. But last year too, we didn’t get the claims very early. It takes families some time to recover. But it is not a concern for the industry. All companies are comfortably placed in reserves. This year’s number will take a hit but nothing beyond that.

What is your strategy for the year?

Our first focus area is employee safety. We will be able to launch an employee vaccination programme soon. We are also focussing on growing our digital assets. We are also focussing on keeping our branches open and about 80 per cent of our branches are still open but with very limited staff.

How Bajaj Allianz Life’s agency channel revved up to face pandemic woes

What are the products that are seeing demand?

Unlike last year, all products are in demand unlike this year. May has not been a great month due to the lockdown. However, the uptake of term and guaranteed products continues. This time, since markets are doing well, ULIPs are also popular. The Budget proposal has not impacted ULIPs too much. We have seen an uptick in ULIPs less than Rs 2.5 lakh and some dip in above Rs 2.5 lakh but not significant. There is just a three to four per cent shift. The number of customers buying ULIPs less than Rs 2.5 lakh has gone up.

Sales of ULIPs are likely to start picking up: Tarun Chugh

How have life insures made underwriting norms tougher post Covid?

It has been a tough year for claims and underwriting has become stricter. For example, we have added a Covid questionnaire. But if somebody goes for their medicals and submits documents properly and fills up the Covid questionnaire, there is not so much of an issue. For people who have had Covid, we tell them to wait for 90 days and then apply for life insurance.

Is another round of hike in term insurance rates expected?

In the last 15 to 20 year, rates for term insurance have come down significantly. The industry had hit the bottom in terms of pricing and a correction was due and Covid became the right time for the price hike. I won’t be surprised if there is a slight price hike now as well but we will have to wait and watch. The increase will vary from insurer to insurer.

Are you launching any new products?

We recently launched our pension plan and that has done very well, particularly as in pensions, we don’t need to get any medicals done and the age group of above 45 has a lot more money. This has surprised us a lot in its uptake and about 12 per cent to 13 per cent of our entire business is coming from pensions.

Any plans to use the higher foreign direct investment cap for the insurance sector?

It is more of a shareholder matter and there has not been any move in that direction. We are fully capitalised, we have the highest amount of capital and reserves. There is no requirement of money.

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Kotak announces pandemic benevolent policy for its 73,000 employees, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Kotak Mahindra Group (Kotak) has announced a Pandemic Benevolent Policy for its ~73,000 employees. Under this policy, family members/nominee of deceased employees from 1st April, 2020 and subsequent cases up to 31st March, 2022 will receive full monthly fixed salary (Cost to Company) for two years beginning June 2021.

The financial services conglomerate said the policy is applicable to families/nominee of all deceased employees irrespective of the cause of death – whether pertaining to Covid-19 or any other cause not related to the Covid-19 pandemic. They will also be eligible for annual bonus and year-end bonus for FY2020-21 and additional Kotak’s Mediclaim insurance will cover the spouse & minor children of the deceased employee for FY2021-22.

The firm said in a release, “To help and support employees across the country in their fight against the pandemic, Kotak has put in place a series of emergency measures including tie-ups for medical emergency response services, isolation facilities, telemedicine services, financial assistance for medical expenses as well as the formation of internal volunteer teams across the country to assist employees and their families with critical resources. Kotak is also striving to vaccinate all Kotakites and family members quickly, to win the fight against the virus and make each Kotakite safer and healthier.”

Kotak Mahindra Group (Group) offers a wide range of financial services from commercial banking, to stock broking, mutual funds, life and general insurance and investment banking.



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Central Bank, IOB may be taken up for privatisation, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW DELHI: The Centre may sell its stake in Central Bank of India and Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) as part of its mega privatisation initiative unveiled in the Union Budget in February.

While the two banks have been recommended for disinvestment by government think tank NITI Aayog, Bank of India (BoI) may be a potential candidate for sale, sources familiar with the deliberations told TOI.

The proposal from the government think tank is being vetted by the disinvestment and financial services departments, ministry sources said. The exercise is part of a multi-stage process for finalising entities that are to be taken up for privatisation.

While NITI Aayog has been tasked with recommending the names, it is then reviewed by the inter-ministerial group of officers and subsequently by a group of ministers, before the Union Cabinet puts its seal of approval.

Sources in the department of investment and public asset management (Dipam), which handles the government’s asset sales programme, said it will examine the proposal with the department of financial services and discuss the legislative changes needed for the privatisation of the state-run banks. “The timeline will depend on the legislative changes required,” the sources added.

Besides, the issue will have to be discussed in detail with the RBI as the law and regulations provide a special dispensation for state-run entities in several areas.

The Cabinet recently cleared the decks for the sale of government stake in IDBI Bank, but sale of the Centre’s holding in the two staterun entities will break new ground as the Narendra Modi administration has embarked on an ambitious privatisation drive, which for the first time includes the financial services space.

The government is hoping to conclude the sale of IDBI Bank stake during the current financial year.

Among the dozen staterun lenders, NITI Aayog had set its eyes on the six entities that were not part of the merger initiative a few years ago and included Bank of Maharashtra, Punjab & Sind Bank and UCO Bank in addition to BoI, IOB and Central Bank.

It, however, was of the view that the better off entities would attract greater interest, resulting in the shortlisting of IOB and Central Bank. Based on the current share price, the two entities are together valued at around Rs 44,000 crore with IOB’s market cap estimated at Rs 31,641 crore.



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SBI to keep up the momentum of stressed assets recovery: Dinesh Kumar Khara

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State Bank of India (SBI) will put in all efforts in FY22 to keep up the momentum of recovery made in stressed assets in FY21, according to Chairman Dinesh Kumar Khara.

This will be aided by the roll-out of pre-packaged insolvency for resolution, resumption of courts and formation of National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL).

India’s largest bank will make judicious use of all recovery options at its disposal, he said.

 

However, Khara underscored that it is too early to call a possible deterioration of asset quality in banks due to the second wave.

“The Bank over the last two financial years was dealing with a steep rise in stressed assets. All-round effort in managing stressed accounts initiated in FY2019 was carried through in FY2020 as well.

 

“However, the outbreak of the pandemic and subsequent lockdown in FY2021 altered the dynamics of stressed asset recovery. Bank had to grapple with disruption in normal proceeding at NCLT due to Covid-19 infections,” the SBI Chief said in the latest annual report.

Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) mandated a standstill clause for some portfolios.

Reduction in NPAs

“Despite all this, the bank was able to achieve a reduction in the level of Gross NPAs (non-performing assets) by ₹22,703 crore by March 2021.

“The corporate segment saw the largest reduction in NPA at ₹18,530 crore, while other segments remained more or less stable,” Khara said.

The gross NPA ratio of the Bank accordingly declined to 4.98 per cent from 6.15 per cent last year.

Khara said SBI is comfortably placed in terms of growth capital.

“Opportunities for lending in promising sectors will be explored to diversify the portfolio and contain risk,” he added.

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Through digital strategy, SBI to explore partnership with Agritechs to push farm credit

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State Bank of India (SBI) explores opportunities to enter into partnerships with select Agritechs to handle high volume and low-ticket loans in the Agribusiness optimally through a digital strategy.

India’s largest bank sees Agritech (agricultural technology) as a channel to bring in a new segment of customers (which the bank could not access earlier) – a channel to improve decision making, grow top-line and improve efficiency.

 

“The partnership will also serve as an opportunity to cut operational costs, credit costs, improve profitability and user experience as digital transformation will no longer be optional but a necessity for structural change in the digital ecosystem,” as per the bank’s annual report.

The bank wants to enter into partnerships with Agritechs with a differentiated business model that will help facilitate the transformation of the Agri supply chain to improve farm production opportunities for the farmers.

This will be done using digital tools such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, IoT (Internet of Things) and Machine Learning-powered capabilities.

During FY21, SBI disbursed ₹1,98,268 crore against the target of ₹1,74,468 crore.

 

“Growth in agriculture and allied activities is the only silver-lining in such a gloomy year.

“Agri Gross Value Added expanded by 3.6 per cent in FY2021 due to sufficient access to inputs, adequate and well-spread south-west and northeast monsoon rains, sufficient reservoir levels and improved soil moisture,” the report said.

According to data on the sectoral deployment of bank credit for March 2021, credit growth to Agri and Allied activities accelerated to 12.3 per cent in March 2021 (4.2 per cent a year ago), the highest since April 2017, it added.

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4 Best Corporate Bond Funds Better Than Bank FDs

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What are corporate bond funds?

Corporate bond funds, also known as non-convertible debentures, are debt funds that invest at least 80% of their capital in corporations with the best credit ratings. The credit ratings offered by rating organisations such as CRISIL or Value Research can be used to assess the safety of corporate bonds. AAA-rated companies are the safest and have the lowest credit risk compared to AA-rated companies. Because Corporate Bond Funds invest primarily in high-rated instruments, their credit risk is lower than that of other debt funds. Corporate Bond Funds have consistently outperformed other debt categories even amid the current financial market turmoil. In the previous year, corporate bond funds have provided an average return of nearly 7%. Their three and five-year average returns are over 8% and 9%, respectively. Which is unquestionably better than the interest rates on FDs offered by major banks like SBI, HDFC. Axis and ICICI.

4 Best Corporate Bond Funds In Terms of Returns

4 Best Corporate Bond Funds In Terms of Returns

Because Corporate Bond Funds are well known for medium duration investment tools, you need to invest for at least two to three years to earn greater returns than bank FDs. The best four corporate bond funds to invest in 2021 are listed below.

Bond Funds 1 Year Returns 3 Year Returns Value Research Rating
Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund 7.99% 9.45% 5 star
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 7.47% 9.15% 5 star
Kotak Corporate Bond Fund 6.90% 8.43% 4 star
Axis Corporate Debt Fund 9.09% 8.92% 3 star
Source: Groww

Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund

Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund

The fund presently has Rs 23,971 crore in asset under management (AUM) and a NAV of Rs 87.13 as of June 4, 2021. National Bank For Agriculture & Rural Development, Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd., Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd., HDB Financial Services Ltd., Madhya Pradesh State are among the fund’s top holdings. The Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund’s direct plan has an expense ratio of 0.46 per cent. The Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund has a Value Research rating of 5 stars, indicating that it has the potential to outperform the returns of bank FDs.

ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund

ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund

ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund Direct Plan Growth is a debt mutual fund scheme of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. The fund presently has Rs 19,706 crore in asset under management (AUM) and a NAV of Rs 23.77 as of June 4, 2021. GOI, National Bank For Agriculture & Rural Development, Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd., Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd., and LIC Housing Finance Ltd. are among the fund’s top holdings. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.27%. Value Research has given this fund a five-star rating, indicating that it can prevent losses and provide good returns during market downturns.

Kotak Corporate Bond Fund

Kotak Corporate Bond Fund

Kotak Corporate Bond Fund Standard Growth is Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund’s debt mutual fund product. The fund presently has Rs 9,310 crore in assets under management (AUM) and a NAV of Rs 2934.42 as of June 4, 2021. State Bank of India, Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd., Reserve Bank of India, Tata Capital Financial Services Ltd., and Tamilnadu State are among the fund’s top holdings. The fund has a 0.66 per cent cost ratio and a 4-star rating from Value Research. Even if the fund’s rating is satisfactory, the fund’s three-year, five-year, and ten-year returns are all higher than the category average returns.

Axis Corporate Debt Fund

Axis Corporate Debt Fund

Axis Corporate Debt Fund Direct Growth is an Axis Mutual Fund’s debt scheme. As of June 4, 2021, the fund has Rs 4,089 crore in assets under management (AUM) and a NAV of Rs 13.75. National Bank For Agriculture & Rural Development, State Bank of India, Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd., India Infradebt Ltd., and Tata Capital Ltd. are among the fund’s top holdings. Value Research has given the fund a three-star rating and the expense ratio of this fund is 0.24%. This suggests that the fund has delivered respectable returns, but the stability with which it has done so is questionable. You can invest in this fund if you don’t mind being dissatisfied amid periods of poor returns.

Should you invest?

Should you invest?

Individuals seeking a low-risk, short-term investment option can simply pick corporate bond funds with a shorter maturity period. Corporate debt funds have a lower risk profile than equity funds, and they offer high liquidity at the time of emergency. Corporate bond funds provide much better returns than other debt securities. Corporate debt instruments may anticipate average yields of 8-10 per cent, whilst bank FDs will currently only have an average return of 5 to 5.5 per cent. Long-term capital gains tax of 20% with indexation is available if you invest in Corporate Bond Funds for more than three years. Because FD returns are taxed according to income tax slabs, corporate bonds are a good adjunct to FDs for investors in the higher tax bracket. As an outcome, you can employ Corporate Bond Funds in your debt portfolio because these funds may deliver consistent returns with little risk exposure and substantial post-tax returns.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The views and investment tips expressed by authors or employees of Greynium Information Technologies, should not be construed as investment advise to buy or sell stocks, gold, currency or other commodities. Investors should certainly not take any trading and investment decision based only on information discussed on GoodReturns.in We are not a qualified financial advisor and any information herein is not investment advice. It is informational in nature. All readers and investors should note that neither Greynium nor the author of the articles, would be responsible for any decision taken based on these articles. Please do consult a professional advisor. Greynium Information Technologies Pvt Ltd, its subsidiaries, associates and authors do not accept culpability for losses and/or damages arising based on information in GoodReturns.in



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Investing In Dividend Stocks? Pros And Cons Of Investing In Stocks That Offer Dividends

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Investing in stocks that offer Dividends

Dividend-paying stocks are advantageous to shareholders. This is due to the fact that investors can get a regular income from their equity investment while continuing to retain the shares in order to profit from additional share price appreciation. Dividends are money in your pocket as the stock market rises and falls. Check upcoming dividends to watch out for in June 2021.

Companies that have a track record of paying regular dividends year after year tend to be better managed because they are conscious that they must provide cash to their shareholders four times a year. Companies with a lengthy history of paying dividends are often large-cap, well-established companies.

Investing in stocks without Dividends

Investing in stocks without Dividends

Why would anyone want to put their money into a business that doesn’t pay out dividends? In reality, there are a number of advantages to investing in equities that do not pay dividends. Companies that do not pay dividends on their stock often reinvest the money that would have gone to dividend payments towards the company’s expansion and overall growth. This suggests that their stock prices are likely to rise in value over time. When the investor’s shares are ready to be sold. Dividends are paid on particular dates, one should know different dates related to the dividends.

Companies that don’t pay dividends may use the money from future dividend payments to buy back stock on the open market, which is known as a “share buyback.” If fewer shares are available on the open market, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) should potentially rise.

Pros of investing in Dividend Stocks

Pros of investing in Dividend Stocks

Passive Dividend Income Stream

Dividend stocks are stocks that provide cash dividends to their shareholders. It’s one of the ways dividend investors profit. Most investors like dividend stocks because they can give a consistent stream of income with little or no effort, similar to interest from a bank account but with a higher potential for profit.

Reinvestment of Dividend

When you utilize your dividend profits to buy more shares of a company’s stock, you’ll make more money because each share you buy generates its own regular dividend distribution. Dividends from stocks can be used to acquire other equities, allowing you to realize the benefits of dividend reinvestment. If you wish to diversify your portfolio, you can utilize that money to invest in alternative investment alternatives such as bonds, gold, and so on.

Advantages of investing in Dividend Stocks

Advantages of investing in Dividend Stocks

Dividends protect against bad markets

Many of your favourite stocks’ share prices may decline during a bear market or a correction. As a result, you might not be able to profit from stock capital appreciation. Even if your portfolio is down, you can still get a nice dividend income provided you have the correct dividend stocks in your portfolio. These 5 Dividend Stocks provided capital appreciation higher than Nifty.

Dividends are low risk

Dividend stocks are typically issued by significant companies that operate in a certain economy. Such businesses already have a substantial market presence, which helps to mitigate the risk component. Due to a largely retained profit foundation, unfavorable market swings have little impact on the productive potential of such businesses.

Dividends provide double income

If your invested stock increases by 30% in the next three years and you earn a 3% dividend return from the same investment, the overall earnings are far more than the capital appreciation alone. When compared to investing in companies that do not pay dividends, you can make twice as much money here.

Cons of dividend stock investing

Cons of dividend stock investing

Capital gains

Dividend stocks do not result in capital gains for investors because the unit stock values of such large-cap firms do not fluctuate much with stock market volatility. As a result, such shares are not ideal for short-term investment objectives, as price fluctuations between such time periods are minor.

Dividend stocks can expensive

Large-cap enterprises, such as industry giants and global enterprises, are the most common issuers of shares connected with regular dividend payouts. As a result, the securities issued have a high value. Furthermore, because most people like to hold on to such shares after purchasing them, finding a buyer in the market may be difficult.

Disadvantages of dividend stock investing

Disadvantages of dividend stock investing

Dividend Cuts

The worst-case scenario is this, Dividends are not a contractual duty, and a firm may choose to reduce dividends at any time. Furthermore, when a corporation reduces dividends, the stock price drops dramatically because the public perceives it as a negative sign. As a result, dividend investors may be in for a double whammy.

High dividend payout risks

A high dividend distribution indicates that the company is paying out a significant amount of its income to its shareholders. For instance, if a corporation makes a profit of Rs 100 crores in a financial year and pays out Rs 85 crores in dividends, the dividend payout ratio is 85%.

Who should consider investing in Dividend Stocks?

Who should consider investing in Dividend Stocks?

Investing in dividends is not a strategy that investors should take lightly. This method necessitates a significant amount of time and research, and it carries the same hazards as other types of investment. However, understanding the benefits and drawbacks of dividend investing is a solid starting point for determining whether or not this popular and rapidly increasing style of investing is suited for you. Equity shares that pay out large dividends on a regular basis are appropriate for investors searching for long-term investments with a high level of corpus security. Such shares might be included in the portfolios of novice investors looking for other ways to achieve larger returns through the stock market. Dividend stocks are generally less hazardous than non-dividend stocks, but before attempting to use them as part of your investment portfolio strategy, you should familiarise yourself with both the benefits and drawbacks of dividend investing.



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China banks are flush with dollars, and that’s a worry

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A mountain of dollars on deposit in China has grown so large that banks are struggling to loan the currency and traders say it poses a risk to official efforts to control a fast-rising yuan.

Investment flows

Boosted by surging export receipts and investment flows, the value of foreign cash deposits in China’s banks leapt above $1trillion for the first time in April, official data show.

A previous jump, late in 2017, preceded heavy dollar selling, which turbo-charged a steep yuan rally in early 2018.

Market participants say the size of the even bigger hoard this time raises that risk, and leaves policymakers’ efforts to restrain the yuan vulnerable to the whims of the exporters and foreign investors who own the cash.

“This positioning in particular, in our view, is susceptible to a capitulation if the broad dollar downtrend were to continue,” said UBS’ Asia currency strategist Rohit Arora, especially if the yuan gains past 6.25 or 6.2 per dollar. “We think a break of these levels … has the ability to affect market psyche,” he said, since they represent, roughly,the yuan’s 2018 peak and its top before a devaluation in 2015, and trigger selling from local corporations in particular.

Also read: Govt blocks China’s bid to enter Indian ports sector

The heavily managed yuan is at three-year highs, having rallied through major resistance at 6.4 per dollar, and it clocked its best month since November in May.

Concerned this rapid rise could unleash huge conversion of the deposits into yuan, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday that from mid-June, banks must set aside more reserves against them to discourage further accumulation.

State restraint

The central bank’s stance marked a shift towards confronting a trend that gathered steam while the bank had, publicly at least, kept to the sidelines.

Since 2017, the PBOC has largely left the yuan to market forces, keeping its currency reserves just above the $3-trillion mark, while behind the scenes the state-bank and private sectors stepped in.

Over the 16 months to April, dollar deposits rose by $242.2 billion, PBOC data show, a rise equal to about 1.8 per cent of gross domestic product and bigger than the much-vaunted inflows into China’s bond market, which totalled about $220 billion for the period.

Even as the country’s trade surplus ballooned during the pandemic and the banking system converted $254 billion into yuan for clients, the People’s Bank of China drained just $90.2 billion from the financial system over those months.

“The private sector has overtaken the central bank to absorb excess US dollar liquidity generated by the corporates and foreign investment inflows,” said HSBC’s global FX strategists, led by Paul Mackel, in a note published on Monday.

That could also reflect the private sector’s view that the yuan is near a peak, or that it is preparing for future payments such as dividends and overseas investment, they added.

Current account surplus

Raw economics can explain the accumulation: China is running the world’s largest current account surplus, and government data show about half the dollar deposits are held by local companies that have boomed with demand for their exports.

The same outperformance has attracted global capital, which has poured into a stock market riding on the pandemic recovery and credit markets paying better yields than other big economies because policy settings have begun to tighten.

Little guarantee

Yet these factors provide little guarantee of the cash pile’s longevity, especially as they meet with a fearsome shift in the dollar/yuan exchange rate, which has fallen 11 per cent in a year.

To be sure, plenty of currency traders think that makes sustained further dollar drops unlikely.

UBS’ Arora and HSBC’s Mackel both reckon a drop to 6.25 per dollar is possible, but that a recovery follows – to around current levels of 6.38 by year’s end for Arora and for Mackel to around 6.60 by end 2021.

Most also reckon the central bank will not tolerate further gains and cite jaw boning from officials to cool the rally and the move to tamp down on dollar liquidity, by raising banks’ reserves ratio, as evidence of its resolve.

Onshore banking sources said that demand for new dollar loans was dire, even at rock-bottom rates – and data shows the value of deposits overhauling loans in December.

“How this has changed over the past few years has been quite phenomenal,” said Patrick Law, head of north Asia local markets and Asia non-deliverable forwards at Bank of America in Hong Kong.

“Last year was the first in over a decade or more, that there were more foreign currency deposits than foreign currency loans and that imbalance has grown in 2021,” he said.

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